André Carson's long incumbency in the solidly Democratic Indianapolis-based district underpins the 97.2% trader consensus, reinforced by his May 2026 primary victory with 62% of the vote and consistent ratings of Safe or Solid Democratic from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The failed 2025-2026 Republican redistricting effort preserved the district's partisan composition, while Patrick McAuley's primary win produced no reported fundraising or polling momentum ahead of the November 3 general election. A Libertarian candidate also appears on the ballot. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing remain the primary scenarios that could shift implied probabilities in the final weeks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes de IN-07
Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes de IN-07
$45,726 Vol.
$45,726 Vol.
2 nov 2026
André Carson (D)
97%
Patrick McAuley (R)
<1%
$45,726 Vol.
$45,726 Vol.
2 nov 2026
André Carson (D)
$7,947 Vol.
97%
Patrick McAuley (R)
$37,779 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).André Carson's long incumbency in the solidly Democratic Indianapolis-based district underpins the 97.2% trader consensus, reinforced by his May 2026 primary victory with 62% of the vote and consistent ratings of Safe or Solid Democratic from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The failed 2025-2026 Republican redistricting effort preserved the district's partisan composition, while Patrick McAuley's primary win produced no reported fundraising or polling momentum ahead of the November 3 general election. A Libertarian candidate also appears on the ballot. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing remain the primary scenarios that could shift implied probabilities in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$45,726Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).André Carson's long incumbency in the solidly Democratic Indianapolis-based district underpins the 97.2% trader consensus, reinforced by his May 2026 primary victory with 62% of the vote and consistent ratings of Safe or Solid Democratic from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The failed 2025-2026 Republican redistricting effort preserved the district's partisan composition, while Patrick McAuley's primary win produced no reported fundraising or polling momentum ahead of the November 3 general election. A Libertarian candidate also appears on the ballot. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing remain the primary scenarios that could shift implied probabilities in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$45,726Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...André Carson's long incumbency in the solidly Democratic Indianapolis-based district underpins the 97.2% trader consensus, reinforced by his May 2026 primary victory with 62% of the vote and consistent ratings of Safe or Solid Democratic from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The failed 2025-2026 Republican redistricting effort preserved the district's partisan composition, while Patrick McAuley's primary win produced no reported fundraising or polling momentum ahead of the November 3 general election. A Libertarian candidate also appears on the ballot. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing remain the primary scenarios that could shift implied probabilities in the final weeks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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