Recent forecasts from multiple models converge on overnight lows of 13–15°C for Ankara on August 31, driven by a recent cool outbreak with northerly flow, cloud cover, and scattered showers that have suppressed daytime heating and enhanced nighttime radiational cooling. Historical late-August minima average near 16–18°C, so current guidance reflects below-normal conditions tied to regional pressure patterns. Clearer skies expected on the 31st could allow modest additional cooling, while any increase in wind or return flow would limit it. Trader emphasis on the 11°C-or-below outcome reflects uncertainty around minimum temperature thresholds amid typical model spread of a few degrees, with higher bins capturing the smaller risk of warmer nights if guidance shifts.