**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and supporting models project a minimum temperature of 27°C for August 23, 2026, consistent with the market's leading 43% implied probability for that outcome.** A broad low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea and southern China coast maintains unsettled conditions, with mainly cloudy skies, isolated thunderstorms early in the period, and a southwest wind of force 3–4. These factors limit nighttime radiative cooling under high humidity (70–95%) and moderate any temperature drops. Nearby tropical cyclone activity adds to the moist, cloudy regime without direct land interaction. Recent observations show overnight lows near 27°C amid similar patterns, aligning with climatological August minima. Ensemble model consensus and HKO guidance favor 27°C as the most probable minimum, though slight variations in shower timing or cloud cover could produce 26°C or 28°C readings. The market's tight spread between 27°C and 28°C reflects this narrow uncertainty range ahead of the overnight period.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Hong Kong el 23 de agosto?
¿Temperatura más baja en Hong Kong el 23 de agosto?
27°C 42%
28°C 35%
26°C 21%
25°C 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 ago 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
20%
26°C
21%
27°C
44%
28°C
35%
29°C
3%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 42%
28°C 35%
26°C 21%
25°C 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 ago 2026
21°C or below
$462 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$526 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,070 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,147 Vol.
1%
25°C
$651 Vol.
20%
26°C
$502 Vol.
21%
27°C
$1,045 Vol.
44%
28°C
$1,102 Vol.
35%
29°C
$1,579 Vol.
3%
30°C
$265 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$304 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and supporting models project a minimum temperature of 27°C for August 23, 2026, consistent with the market's leading 43% implied probability for that outcome.**
A broad low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea and southern China coast maintains unsettled conditions, with mainly cloudy skies, isolated thunderstorms early in the period, and a southwest wind of force 3–4. These factors limit nighttime radiative cooling under high humidity (70–95%) and moderate any temperature drops. Nearby tropical cyclone activity adds to the moist, cloudy regime without direct land interaction.
Recent observations show overnight lows near 27°C amid similar patterns, aligning with climatological August minima. Ensemble model consensus and HKO guidance favor 27°C as the most probable minimum, though slight variations in shower timing or cloud cover could produce 26°C or 28°C readings. The market's tight spread between 27°C and 28°C reflects this narrow uncertainty range ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$8,653Fecha de finalización
23 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and supporting models project a minimum temperature of 27°C for August 23, 2026, consistent with the market's leading 43% implied probability for that outcome.**
A broad low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea and southern China coast maintains unsettled conditions, with mainly cloudy skies, isolated thunderstorms early in the period, and a southwest wind of force 3–4. These factors limit nighttime radiative cooling under high humidity (70–95%) and moderate any temperature drops. Nearby tropical cyclone activity adds to the moist, cloudy regime without direct land interaction.
Recent observations show overnight lows near 27°C amid similar patterns, aligning with climatological August minima. Ensemble model consensus and HKO guidance favor 27°C as the most probable minimum, though slight variations in shower timing or cloud cover could produce 26°C or 28°C readings. The market's tight spread between 27°C and 28°C reflects this narrow uncertainty range ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$8,653Fecha de finalización
23 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and supporting models project a minimum temperature of 27°C for August 23, 2026, consistent with the market's leading 43% implied probability for that outcome.** A broad low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea and southern China coast maintains unsettled conditions, with mainly cloudy skies, isolated thunderstorms early in the period, and a southwest wind of force 3–4. These factors limit nighttime radiative cooling under high humidity (70–95%) and moderate any temperature drops. Nearby tropical cyclone activity adds to the moist, cloudy regime without direct land interaction. Recent observations show overnight lows near 27°C amid similar patterns, aligning with climatological August minima. Ensemble model consensus and HKO guidance favor 27°C as the most probable minimum, though slight variations in shower timing or cloud cover could produce 26°C or 28°C readings. The market's tight spread between 27°C and 28°C reflects this narrow uncertainty range ahead of the overnight period.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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