Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a minimum temperature of 26°C for August 31 amid persistent cloud cover, showers, and thunderstorms driven by a broad low-pressure trough over the South China Sea and Guangdong coast. High humidity (75–95%) and reduced radiative cooling under overcast skies are limiting overnight drops, consistent with recent daily minima near 26–27°C. Model consensus across sources clusters the low between 25–26°C, though localized variations in rainfall timing and wind shifts could produce slight deviations. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow scientific range, with the highest probability on 26°C amid ongoing uncertainty in exact nocturnal cooling under unstable conditions. Updated model runs and HKO briefings ahead of resolution will provide the next key data points.