Recent official forecasts from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and GFS-based models indicate Moscow's low on September 21 will likely reach 13–15°C under southerly flow and mostly cloudy skies with limited overnight radiational cooling. This places the outcome near or slightly above the long-term climatological minimum of roughly 8°C for the date. Trader emphasis on the 8°C-or-below bin at 45% implied probability appears driven by model spread in overnight minimums, potential for localized clearing, and historical precedent for rapid September temperature drops. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus any revised Hydromet guidance, remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution among the tightly clustered 11–14°C outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Moscú el 21 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Moscú el 21 de septiembre?
8°C o menos 90%
11°C 40%
13°C 22%
14°C 22%
NUEVO
NUEVO
21 sep 2026
8°C o menos
90%
9°C
10%
10°C
18%
11°C
40%
12°C
21%
13°C
22%
14°C
22%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C o más
<1%
8°C o menos 90%
11°C 40%
13°C 22%
14°C 22%
NUEVO
NUEVO
21 sep 2026
8°C o menos
$0 Vol.
90%
9°C
$0 Vol.
10%
10°C
$0 Vol.
18%
11°C
$0 Vol.
40%
12°C
$0 Vol.
21%
13°C
$0 Vol.
22%
14°C
$0 Vol.
22%
15°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
18°C o más
$32 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and GFS-based models indicate Moscow's low on September 21 will likely reach 13–15°C under southerly flow and mostly cloudy skies with limited overnight radiational cooling. This places the outcome near or slightly above the long-term climatological minimum of roughly 8°C for the date. Trader emphasis on the 8°C-or-below bin at 45% implied probability appears driven by model spread in overnight minimums, potential for localized clearing, and historical precedent for rapid September temperature drops. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus any revised Hydromet guidance, remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution among the tightly clustered 11–14°C outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 19, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volumen
$32Fecha de finalización
21 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 19, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and GFS-based models indicate Moscow's low on September 21 will likely reach 13–15°C under southerly flow and mostly cloudy skies with limited overnight radiational cooling. This places the outcome near or slightly above the long-term climatological minimum of roughly 8°C for the date. Trader emphasis on the 8°C-or-below bin at 45% implied probability appears driven by model spread in overnight minimums, potential for localized clearing, and historical precedent for rapid September temperature drops. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus any revised Hydromet guidance, remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution among the tightly clustered 11–14°C outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$32Fecha de finalización
21 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 19, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and GFS-based models indicate Moscow's low on September 21 will likely reach 13–15°C under southerly flow and mostly cloudy skies with limited overnight radiational cooling. This places the outcome near or slightly above the long-term climatological minimum of roughly 8°C for the date. Trader emphasis on the 8°C-or-below bin at 45% implied probability appears driven by model spread in overnight minimums, potential for localized clearing, and historical precedent for rapid September temperature drops. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus any revised Hydromet guidance, remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution among the tightly clustered 11–14°C outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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