Recent forecasts from models and agencies such as the Met Office and BBC indicate Munich overnight lows on August 22 will likely settle near 11–13 °C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these bins. Primary controls include the degree of nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds, limited cold-air advection from the north, and the urban heat-island effect that typically raises minimum temperatures by 1–2 °C relative to rural surroundings. Small shifts in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing can easily swing the minimum across the narrow 11–13 °C threshold, while historical August climatology shows average lows near 12–14 °C, underscoring why traders assign roughly equal weight to the three leading outcomes.