Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, ICON-EU, and GFS models indicate a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 23 near 9–11°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and minimal precipitation, reflecting a cool but not extreme air mass following recent unsettled conditions. This consensus aligns with climatological norms for late September, where overnight lows typically range 8–12°C, though model spread arises from variable cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing that could shift the exact minimum by a few degrees. With market-implied odds evenly split between the coldest and warmest buckets, traders appear to price in genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of final model runs and official IMGW guidance, which often resolve such narrow ranges in the last 24–48 hours.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Varsovia el 23 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Varsovia el 23 de septiembre?
4°C o menos 100%
14°C o más 100%
7°C 40%
8°C 40%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 sep 2026
4°C o menos
100%
5°C
39%
6°C
39%
7°C
40%
8°C
40%
9°C
40%
10°C
40%
11°C
39%
12°C
39%
13°C
39%
14°C o más
100%
4°C o menos 100%
14°C o más 100%
7°C 40%
8°C 40%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 sep 2026
4°C o menos
$0 Vol.
100%
5°C
$0 Vol.
39%
6°C
$0 Vol.
39%
7°C
$0 Vol.
40%
8°C
$0 Vol.
40%
9°C
$0 Vol.
40%
10°C
$0 Vol.
40%
11°C
$0 Vol.
39%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C
$0 Vol.
39%
14°C o más
$0 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, ICON-EU, and GFS models indicate a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 23 near 9–11°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and minimal precipitation, reflecting a cool but not extreme air mass following recent unsettled conditions. This consensus aligns with climatological norms for late September, where overnight lows typically range 8–12°C, though model spread arises from variable cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing that could shift the exact minimum by a few degrees. With market-implied odds evenly split between the coldest and warmest buckets, traders appear to price in genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of final model runs and official IMGW guidance, which often resolve such narrow ranges in the last 24–48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
23 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, ICON-EU, and GFS models indicate a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 23 near 9–11°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and minimal precipitation, reflecting a cool but not extreme air mass following recent unsettled conditions. This consensus aligns with climatological norms for late September, where overnight lows typically range 8–12°C, though model spread arises from variable cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing that could shift the exact minimum by a few degrees. With market-implied odds evenly split between the coldest and warmest buckets, traders appear to price in genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of final model runs and official IMGW guidance, which often resolve such narrow ranges in the last 24–48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
23 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, ICON-EU, and GFS models indicate a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 23 near 9–11°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and minimal precipitation, reflecting a cool but not extreme air mass following recent unsettled conditions. This consensus aligns with climatological norms for late September, where overnight lows typically range 8–12°C, though model spread arises from variable cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing that could shift the exact minimum by a few degrees. With market-implied odds evenly split between the coldest and warmest buckets, traders appear to price in genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of final model runs and official IMGW guidance, which often resolve such narrow ranges in the last 24–48 hours.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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