The heavily Democratic tilt of New Jersey’s 12th congressional district, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two-to-one and the seat has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Bonnie Watson Coleman’s retirement after six terms opened a June 2 primary won by Adam Hamawy over a field of more than a dozen candidates, leaving Republican Gregg Mele as the sole general-election opponent in a district that favored Democrats by 25 points in 2024. Trader consensus has shown little movement since the primary, reflecting the absence of competitive polling, major endorsements shifting the race, or national political events capable of overcoming the district’s structural partisan imbalance. A late scandal, health issue, or unusually strong Republican turnout wave would be required to narrow the gap meaningfully before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes de NJ-12
Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes de NJ-12
$22,311 Vol.
$22,311 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
6%
$22,311 Vol.
$22,311 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$14,221 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$8,089 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic tilt of New Jersey’s 12th congressional district, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two-to-one and the seat has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Bonnie Watson Coleman’s retirement after six terms opened a June 2 primary won by Adam Hamawy over a field of more than a dozen candidates, leaving Republican Gregg Mele as the sole general-election opponent in a district that favored Democrats by 25 points in 2024. Trader consensus has shown little movement since the primary, reflecting the absence of competitive polling, major endorsements shifting the race, or national political events capable of overcoming the district’s structural partisan imbalance. A late scandal, health issue, or unusually strong Republican turnout wave would be required to narrow the gap meaningfully before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volumen
$22,311Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic tilt of New Jersey’s 12th congressional district, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two-to-one and the seat has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Bonnie Watson Coleman’s retirement after six terms opened a June 2 primary won by Adam Hamawy over a field of more than a dozen candidates, leaving Republican Gregg Mele as the sole general-election opponent in a district that favored Democrats by 25 points in 2024. Trader consensus has shown little movement since the primary, reflecting the absence of competitive polling, major endorsements shifting the race, or national political events capable of overcoming the district’s structural partisan imbalance. A late scandal, health issue, or unusually strong Republican turnout wave would be required to narrow the gap meaningfully before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$22,311Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic tilt of New Jersey’s 12th congressional district, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two-to-one and the seat has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Bonnie Watson Coleman’s retirement after six terms opened a June 2 primary won by Adam Hamawy over a field of more than a dozen candidates, leaving Republican Gregg Mele as the sole general-election opponent in a district that favored Democrats by 25 points in 2024. Trader consensus has shown little movement since the primary, reflecting the absence of competitive polling, major endorsements shifting the race, or national political events capable of overcoming the district’s structural partisan imbalance. A late scandal, health issue, or unusually strong Republican turnout wave would be required to narrow the gap meaningfully before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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