NY-12 encompasses heavily Democratic Manhattan neighborhoods including the Upper West Side and Chelsea, where the retiring incumbent secured over 80 percent in 2024. With the June 23 Democratic primary weeks away and polls showing a fragmented field among candidates such as Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, traders view the eventual nominee as the prohibitive favorite in the November general election against the Republican contender. The district’s consistent partisan lean and low Republican registration drive the 94.5 percent consensus for the Democratic Party. A credible challenge would require an unforeseen primary upset producing a nominee facing significant vulnerabilities, combined with an unusually strong Republican performance or external events shifting voter turnout in this solidly blue seat.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-12
Ganador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-12
$20,211 Vol.
$20,211 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
95%
Partido Republicano
5%
$20,211 Vol.
$20,211 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$16,248 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$3,963 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-12 encompasses heavily Democratic Manhattan neighborhoods including the Upper West Side and Chelsea, where the retiring incumbent secured over 80 percent in 2024. With the June 23 Democratic primary weeks away and polls showing a fragmented field among candidates such as Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, traders view the eventual nominee as the prohibitive favorite in the November general election against the Republican contender. The district’s consistent partisan lean and low Republican registration drive the 94.5 percent consensus for the Democratic Party. A credible challenge would require an unforeseen primary upset producing a nominee facing significant vulnerabilities, combined with an unusually strong Republican performance or external events shifting voter turnout in this solidly blue seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$20,211Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-12 encompasses heavily Democratic Manhattan neighborhoods including the Upper West Side and Chelsea, where the retiring incumbent secured over 80 percent in 2024. With the June 23 Democratic primary weeks away and polls showing a fragmented field among candidates such as Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, traders view the eventual nominee as the prohibitive favorite in the November general election against the Republican contender. The district’s consistent partisan lean and low Republican registration drive the 94.5 percent consensus for the Democratic Party. A credible challenge would require an unforeseen primary upset producing a nominee facing significant vulnerabilities, combined with an unusually strong Republican performance or external events shifting voter turnout in this solidly blue seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$20,211Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...NY-12 encompasses heavily Democratic Manhattan neighborhoods including the Upper West Side and Chelsea, where the retiring incumbent secured over 80 percent in 2024. With the June 23 Democratic primary weeks away and polls showing a fragmented field among candidates such as Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, traders view the eventual nominee as the prohibitive favorite in the November general election against the Republican contender. The district’s consistent partisan lean and low Republican registration drive the 94.5 percent consensus for the Democratic Party. A credible challenge would require an unforeseen primary upset producing a nominee facing significant vulnerabilities, combined with an unusually strong Republican performance or external events shifting voter turnout in this solidly blue seat.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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