Historical frequency of bolide events releasing at least 5 kt TNT equivalent stands at roughly one every 1–3 years globally, per CNEOS fireball data and CTBTO infrasound records spanning decades, yielding a modest annual probability well below 50 percent once detection biases in earlier years are considered. As of mid-September 2026, no confirmed event meeting the threshold has occurred, with recent fireballs such as the March Ohio airburst registering only ~0.25 kt and small pre-impact detections like 2026 RW1 far below scale. Ongoing NASA Planetary Defense monitoring and absence of any modeled near-Earth object on collision course reinforce trader consensus favoring no strike for the calendar year, though the final months carry residual uncertainty from undetected small impactors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
28% chance
$314,093 Vol.
$314,093 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
28% chance
$314,093 Vol.
$314,093 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Historical frequency of bolide events releasing at least 5 kt TNT equivalent stands at roughly one every 1–3 years globally, per CNEOS fireball data and CTBTO infrasound records spanning decades, yielding a modest annual probability well below 50 percent once detection biases in earlier years are considered. As of mid-September 2026, no confirmed event meeting the threshold has occurred, with recent fireballs such as the March Ohio airburst registering only ~0.25 kt and small pre-impact detections like 2026 RW1 far below scale. Ongoing NASA Planetary Defense monitoring and absence of any modeled near-Earth object on collision course reinforce trader consensus favoring no strike for the calendar year, though the final months carry residual uncertainty from undetected small impactors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$314,093End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Historical frequency of bolide events releasing at least 5 kt TNT equivalent stands at roughly one every 1–3 years globally, per CNEOS fireball data and CTBTO infrasound records spanning decades, yielding a modest annual probability well below 50 percent once detection biases in earlier years are considered. As of mid-September 2026, no confirmed event meeting the threshold has occurred, with recent fireballs such as the March Ohio airburst registering only ~0.25 kt and small pre-impact detections like 2026 RW1 far below scale. Ongoing NASA Planetary Defense monitoring and absence of any modeled near-Earth object on collision course reinforce trader consensus favoring no strike for the calendar year, though the final months carry residual uncertainty from undetected small impactors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$314,093End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Historical frequency of bolide events releasing at least 5 kt TNT equivalent stands at roughly one every 1–3 years globally, per CNEOS fireball data and CTBTO infrasound records spanning decades, yielding a modest annual probability well below 50 percent once detection biases in earlier years are considered. As of mid-September 2026, no confirmed event meeting the threshold has occurred, with recent fireballs such as the March Ohio airburst registering only ~0.25 kt and small pre-impact detections like 2026 RW1 far below scale. Ongoing NASA Planetary Defense monitoring and absence of any modeled near-Earth object on collision course reinforce trader consensus favoring no strike for the calendar year, though the final months carry residual uncertainty from undetected small impactors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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