No known near-Earth objects capable of producing a 5-kiloton or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to continuous NASA CNEOS and ESA surveys of potentially hazardous asteroids. This absence of identified threats underpins the 73.5% market-implied probability for “No,” as 5 kt events align with meter-scale bolides whose average terrestrial impact rate remains low—roughly once every several decades based on historical flux models. Recent Q1 2026 increases in smaller fireball detections reflect heightened observational coverage rather than elevated risk from larger objects, with all confirmed predicted impacts this year involving sub-10 m meteoroids that dissipate harmlessly. Ongoing monitoring and the absence of new orbital data shifts continue to support trader consensus around these low odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$311,320 Vol.
$311,320 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$311,320 Vol.
$311,320 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects capable of producing a 5-kiloton or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to continuous NASA CNEOS and ESA surveys of potentially hazardous asteroids. This absence of identified threats underpins the 73.5% market-implied probability for “No,” as 5 kt events align with meter-scale bolides whose average terrestrial impact rate remains low—roughly once every several decades based on historical flux models. Recent Q1 2026 increases in smaller fireball detections reflect heightened observational coverage rather than elevated risk from larger objects, with all confirmed predicted impacts this year involving sub-10 m meteoroids that dissipate harmlessly. Ongoing monitoring and the absence of new orbital data shifts continue to support trader consensus around these low odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$311,320End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects capable of producing a 5-kiloton or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to continuous NASA CNEOS and ESA surveys of potentially hazardous asteroids. This absence of identified threats underpins the 73.5% market-implied probability for “No,” as 5 kt events align with meter-scale bolides whose average terrestrial impact rate remains low—roughly once every several decades based on historical flux models. Recent Q1 2026 increases in smaller fireball detections reflect heightened observational coverage rather than elevated risk from larger objects, with all confirmed predicted impacts this year involving sub-10 m meteoroids that dissipate harmlessly. Ongoing monitoring and the absence of new orbital data shifts continue to support trader consensus around these low odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$311,320End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects capable of producing a 5-kiloton or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to continuous NASA CNEOS and ESA surveys of potentially hazardous asteroids. This absence of identified threats underpins the 73.5% market-implied probability for “No,” as 5 kt events align with meter-scale bolides whose average terrestrial impact rate remains low—roughly once every several decades based on historical flux models. Recent Q1 2026 increases in smaller fireball detections reflect heightened observational coverage rather than elevated risk from larger objects, with all confirmed predicted impacts this year involving sub-10 m meteoroids that dissipate harmlessly. Ongoing monitoring and the absence of new orbital data shifts continue to support trader consensus around these low odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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