Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.8% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, as the deadline passed yesterday without any new official announcements from governments declaring Iranian personnel persona non grata. This high confidence stems from the absence of fresh diplomatic actions in late April, following Argentina's April 2 expulsion of Iran's charge d'affaires over IRGC blacklisting disputes and U.S. disclosures of a prior December 2025 ouster of Iran's deputy UN envoy on national security grounds. Earlier March escalations saw Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Gulf states expel Iranian attaches amid missile attacks and proxy tensions, but no subsequent retaliatory moves materialized. Realistic shifts could arise from late-verified expulsions predating the cutoff or disputed timings, though verification from primary diplomatic channels remains unlikely at this stage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnother Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30?
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30?
$14,464 Vol.
$14,464 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$14,464 Vol.
$14,464 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.8% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, as the deadline passed yesterday without any new official announcements from governments declaring Iranian personnel persona non grata. This high confidence stems from the absence of fresh diplomatic actions in late April, following Argentina's April 2 expulsion of Iran's charge d'affaires over IRGC blacklisting disputes and U.S. disclosures of a prior December 2025 ouster of Iran's deputy UN envoy on national security grounds. Earlier March escalations saw Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Gulf states expel Iranian attaches amid missile attacks and proxy tensions, but no subsequent retaliatory moves materialized. Realistic shifts could arise from late-verified expulsions predating the cutoff or disputed timings, though verification from primary diplomatic channels remains unlikely at this stage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Volume
$14,464End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.8% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, as the deadline passed yesterday without any new official announcements from governments declaring Iranian personnel persona non grata. This high confidence stems from the absence of fresh diplomatic actions in late April, following Argentina's April 2 expulsion of Iran's charge d'affaires over IRGC blacklisting disputes and U.S. disclosures of a prior December 2025 ouster of Iran's deputy UN envoy on national security grounds. Earlier March escalations saw Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Gulf states expel Iranian attaches amid missile attacks and proxy tensions, but no subsequent retaliatory moves materialized. Realistic shifts could arise from late-verified expulsions predating the cutoff or disputed timings, though verification from primary diplomatic channels remains unlikely at this stage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$14,464End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.8% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, as the deadline passed yesterday without any new official announcements from governments declaring Iranian personnel persona non grata. This high confidence stems from the absence of fresh diplomatic actions in late April, following Argentina's April 2 expulsion of Iran's charge d'affaires over IRGC blacklisting disputes and U.S. disclosures of a prior December 2025 ouster of Iran's deputy UN envoy on national security grounds. Earlier March escalations saw Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Gulf states expel Iranian attaches amid missile attacks and proxy tensions, but no subsequent retaliatory moves materialized. Realistic shifts could arise from late-verified expulsions predating the cutoff or disputed timings, though verification from primary diplomatic channels remains unlikely at this stage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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