Recent secondary market activity and funding rounds have propelled Anthropic’s implied valuation above OpenAI’s, with Anthropic shares trading near $1 trillion on platforms like Forge Global compared with OpenAI’s roughly $850–880 billion range following its March 2026 raise. Enterprise revenue momentum—Anthropic’s annualized run rate exceeding $30 billion with a projected profitable quarter—contrasts with OpenAI’s heavier consumer mix and larger projected losses ahead of its planned 2026 IPO. Traders assign near-certain implied probability to Anthropic maintaining the lead through year-end 2026, reflecting capital allocation favoring its growth trajectory. Tail risks include regulatory actions on AI, shifts in macro risk appetite, or unexpected IPO pricing that could narrow or reverse the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$118,560 Vol.
$118,560 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$118,560 Vol.
$118,560 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent secondary market activity and funding rounds have propelled Anthropic’s implied valuation above OpenAI’s, with Anthropic shares trading near $1 trillion on platforms like Forge Global compared with OpenAI’s roughly $850–880 billion range following its March 2026 raise. Enterprise revenue momentum—Anthropic’s annualized run rate exceeding $30 billion with a projected profitable quarter—contrasts with OpenAI’s heavier consumer mix and larger projected losses ahead of its planned 2026 IPO. Traders assign near-certain implied probability to Anthropic maintaining the lead through year-end 2026, reflecting capital allocation favoring its growth trajectory. Tail risks include regulatory actions on AI, shifts in macro risk appetite, or unexpected IPO pricing that could narrow or reverse the gap.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ET
Volume
$118,560End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent secondary market activity and funding rounds have propelled Anthropic’s implied valuation above OpenAI’s, with Anthropic shares trading near $1 trillion on platforms like Forge Global compared with OpenAI’s roughly $850–880 billion range following its March 2026 raise. Enterprise revenue momentum—Anthropic’s annualized run rate exceeding $30 billion with a projected profitable quarter—contrasts with OpenAI’s heavier consumer mix and larger projected losses ahead of its planned 2026 IPO. Traders assign near-certain implied probability to Anthropic maintaining the lead through year-end 2026, reflecting capital allocation favoring its growth trajectory. Tail risks include regulatory actions on AI, shifts in macro risk appetite, or unexpected IPO pricing that could narrow or reverse the gap.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$118,560End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Recent secondary market activity and funding rounds have propelled Anthropic’s implied valuation above OpenAI’s, with Anthropic shares trading near $1 trillion on platforms like Forge Global compared with OpenAI’s roughly $850–880 billion range following its March 2026 raise. Enterprise revenue momentum—Anthropic’s annualized run rate exceeding $30 billion with a projected profitable quarter—contrasts with OpenAI’s heavier consumer mix and larger projected losses ahead of its planned 2026 IPO. Traders assign near-certain implied probability to Anthropic maintaining the lead through year-end 2026, reflecting capital allocation favoring its growth trajectory. Tail risks include regulatory actions on AI, shifts in macro risk appetite, or unexpected IPO pricing that could narrow or reverse the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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