Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability that Anthropic will achieve a higher valuation than OpenAI by year-end 2026, driven by Anthropic's explosive revenue acceleration—recently surpassing $30 billion annualized run-rate versus OpenAI's $25 billion—fueled by enterprise demand for Claude's code-generation tools and superior projected gross margins reaching 77% by 2028. Private secondary market valuations have already flipped, with Anthropic at $864 billion exceeding OpenAI's $846 billion, despite OpenAI's March $852 billion funding round amid investor scrutiny over sustainability. Key catalysts include Anthropic's February $380 billion raise, ongoing Amazon backing, and potential Claude model upgrades versus OpenAI's GPT advancements, highlighting closely contested leadership in AI revenue multiples.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability that Anthropic will achieve a higher valuation than OpenAI by year-end 2026, driven by Anthropic's explosive revenue acceleration—recently surpassing $30 billion annualized run-rate versus OpenAI's $25 billion—fueled by enterprise demand for Claude's code-generation tools and superior projected gross margins reaching 77% by 2028. Private secondary market valuations have already flipped, with Anthropic at $864 billion exceeding OpenAI's $846 billion, despite OpenAI's March $852 billion funding round amid investor scrutiny over sustainability. Key catalysts include Anthropic's February $380 billion raise, ongoing Amazon backing, and potential Claude model upgrades versus OpenAI's GPT advancements, highlighting closely contested leadership in AI revenue multiples.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ET
Volume
$18End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability that Anthropic will achieve a higher valuation than OpenAI by year-end 2026, driven by Anthropic's explosive revenue acceleration—recently surpassing $30 billion annualized run-rate versus OpenAI's $25 billion—fueled by enterprise demand for Claude's code-generation tools and superior projected gross margins reaching 77% by 2028. Private secondary market valuations have already flipped, with Anthropic at $864 billion exceeding OpenAI's $846 billion, despite OpenAI's March $852 billion funding round amid investor scrutiny over sustainability. Key catalysts include Anthropic's February $380 billion raise, ongoing Amazon backing, and potential Claude model upgrades versus OpenAI's GPT advancements, highlighting closely contested leadership in AI revenue multiples.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability that Anthropic will achieve a higher valuation than OpenAI by year-end 2026, driven by Anthropic's explosive revenue acceleration—recently surpassing $30 billion annualized run-rate versus OpenAI's $25 billion—fueled by enterprise demand for Claude's code-generation tools and superior projected gross margins reaching 77% by 2028. Private secondary market valuations have already flipped, with Anthropic at $864 billion exceeding OpenAI's $846 billion, despite OpenAI's March $852 billion funding round amid investor scrutiny over sustainability. Key catalysts include Anthropic's February $380 billion raise, ongoing Amazon backing, and potential Claude model upgrades versus OpenAI's GPT advancements, highlighting closely contested leadership in AI revenue multiples.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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