Robust demand for defense and aerospace suppliers amid rising U.S. and allied spending on space, aviation, and precision systems underpins the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied odds for Applied Aerospace & Defense closing its IPO day in the $2.75B–$3.25B market-cap range. The company’s sole-source positions, multi-year backlog visibility, and exposure to expanding commercial and national-security programs have driven institutional interest, with pricing and early trading reflecting sector momentum rather than isolated company metrics. This skin-in-the-game consensus from real-capital traders prices in limited near-term downside from debut volatility or macroeconomic shifts. Realistic challenges remain, including broader equity-market swings, weaker-than-expected aftermarket order flow, or regulatory delays that could push the closing valuation outside the band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2.75B–$3.25B 99.8%
$3.25B–$3.75B <1%
<$2.75B <1%
$3.75B–$4.25B <1%
$49,319 Vol.
$49,319 Vol.
Jun 3, 2026
<$2.75B
No
$2.75B–$3.25B
Yes
$3.25B–$3.75B
No
$3.75B–$4.25B
No
$4.25B–$4.75B
No
$4.75B–$5.25B
No
$5.25B+
No
No IPO before August 2026
No
$2.75B–$3.25B 99.8%
$3.25B–$3.75B <1%
<$2.75B <1%
$3.75B–$4.25B <1%
$49,319 Vol.
$49,319 Vol.
Jun 3, 2026
<$2.75B
$2,908 Vol.
No
$2.75B–$3.25B
$10,764 Vol.
Yes
$3.25B–$3.75B
$21,046 Vol.
No
$3.75B–$4.25B
$5,438 Vol.
No
$4.25B–$4.75B
$2,003 Vol.
No
$4.75B–$5.25B
$2,841 Vol.
No
$5.25B+
$2,591 Vol.
No
No IPO before August 2026
$1,729 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on Applied Aerospace & Defense's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled for June 3 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Robust demand for defense and aerospace suppliers amid rising U.S. and allied spending on space, aviation, and precision systems underpins the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied odds for Applied Aerospace & Defense closing its IPO day in the $2.75B–$3.25B market-cap range. The company’s sole-source positions, multi-year backlog visibility, and exposure to expanding commercial and national-security programs have driven institutional interest, with pricing and early trading reflecting sector momentum rather than isolated company metrics. This skin-in-the-game consensus from real-capital traders prices in limited near-term downside from debut volatility or macroeconomic shifts. Realistic challenges remain, including broader equity-market swings, weaker-than-expected aftermarket order flow, or regulatory delays that could push the closing valuation outside the band.
This market will resolve based on Applied Aerospace & Defense's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled for June 3 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled for June 3 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Market Opened: May 27, 2026, 10:40 PM ET
Volume
$49,319End Date
Jun 3, 2026Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 10:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on Applied Aerospace & Defense's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled for June 3 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Robust demand for defense and aerospace suppliers amid rising U.S. and allied spending on space, aviation, and precision systems underpins the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied odds for Applied Aerospace & Defense closing its IPO day in the $2.75B–$3.25B market-cap range. The company’s sole-source positions, multi-year backlog visibility, and exposure to expanding commercial and national-security programs have driven institutional interest, with pricing and early trading reflecting sector momentum rather than isolated company metrics. This skin-in-the-game consensus from real-capital traders prices in limited near-term downside from debut volatility or macroeconomic shifts. Realistic challenges remain, including broader equity-market swings, weaker-than-expected aftermarket order flow, or regulatory delays that could push the closing valuation outside the band.
This market will resolve based on Applied Aerospace & Defense's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled for June 3 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled for June 3 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$49,319End Date
Jun 3, 2026Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 10:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Robust demand for defense and aerospace suppliers amid rising U.S. and allied spending on space, aviation, and precision systems underpins the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied odds for Applied Aerospace & Defense closing its IPO day in the $2.75B–$3.25B market-cap range. The company’s sole-source positions, multi-year backlog visibility, and exposure to expanding commercial and national-security programs have driven institutional interest, with pricing and early trading reflecting sector momentum rather than isolated company metrics. This skin-in-the-game consensus from real-capital traders prices in limited near-term downside from debut volatility or macroeconomic shifts. Realistic challenges remain, including broader equity-market swings, weaker-than-expected aftermarket order flow, or regulatory delays that could push the closing valuation outside the band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions