Claude Opus 5, released July 24, drives the 80.5% implied probability for its max-effort variant because independent benchmarks from Artificial Analysis and Arena show it leading the Intelligence Index at 61 while topping coding and agentic boards at half the price of frontier models like Fable 5. Its 1M-token context, default thinking mode, and full effort ladder (including high and max settings) deliver measurable gains in deep reasoning and long-horizon tasks over Opus 4.8. The high-effort variant trails at 9.5% as traders price the performance gap. Qwen3.8-Max, newly available August 3, sits at just 2.5% amid limited benchmark data. With August 24 only weeks away and no major competing releases reported, trader consensus reflects Opus 5’s recent verified gains in capability and efficiency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updatedclaude-opus-5-max 81%
claude-opus-5-high 10.5%
Other 9.3%
qwen3.8-max 2.6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
claude-opus-5-max
81%
claude-opus-5-high
10%
Other
9%
qwen3.8-max
3%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
1%
claude-opus-5-max 81%
claude-opus-5-high 10.5%
Other 9.3%
qwen3.8-max 2.6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
claude-opus-5-max
$1,242 Vol.
81%
claude-opus-5-high
$128 Vol.
10%
Other
$409 Vol.
9%
qwen3.8-max
$57 Vol.
3%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$125 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Opus 5, released July 24, drives the 80.5% implied probability for its max-effort variant because independent benchmarks from Artificial Analysis and Arena show it leading the Intelligence Index at 61 while topping coding and agentic boards at half the price of frontier models like Fable 5. Its 1M-token context, default thinking mode, and full effort ladder (including high and max settings) deliver measurable gains in deep reasoning and long-horizon tasks over Opus 4.8. The high-effort variant trails at 9.5% as traders price the performance gap. Qwen3.8-Max, newly available August 3, sits at just 2.5% amid limited benchmark data. With August 24 only weeks away and no major competing releases reported, trader consensus reflects Opus 5’s recent verified gains in capability and efficiency.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Volume
$1,961End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Opus 5, released July 24, drives the 80.5% implied probability for its max-effort variant because independent benchmarks from Artificial Analysis and Arena show it leading the Intelligence Index at 61 while topping coding and agentic boards at half the price of frontier models like Fable 5. Its 1M-token context, default thinking mode, and full effort ladder (including high and max settings) deliver measurable gains in deep reasoning and long-horizon tasks over Opus 4.8. The high-effort variant trails at 9.5% as traders price the performance gap. Qwen3.8-Max, newly available August 3, sits at just 2.5% amid limited benchmark data. With August 24 only weeks away and no major competing releases reported, trader consensus reflects Opus 5’s recent verified gains in capability and efficiency.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,961End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Claude Opus 5, released July 24, drives the 80.5% implied probability for its max-effort variant because independent benchmarks from Artificial Analysis and Arena show it leading the Intelligence Index at 61 while topping coding and agentic boards at half the price of frontier models like Fable 5. Its 1M-token context, default thinking mode, and full effort ladder (including high and max settings) deliver measurable gains in deep reasoning and long-horizon tasks over Opus 4.8. The high-effort variant trails at 9.5% as traders price the performance gap. Qwen3.8-Max, newly available August 3, sits at just 2.5% amid limited benchmark data. With August 24 only weeks away and no major competing releases reported, trader consensus reflects Opus 5’s recent verified gains in capability and efficiency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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