Trader consensus prices the probability of Bill Gates facing any federal or state criminal charge by June 30, 2026, at just 3 percent because no active Department of Justice investigation, grand jury proceeding, or prosecutorial referral exists against him. Public records and congressional scrutiny tied to Jeffrey Epstein connections have produced document releases and scheduled testimony but no criminal filings or indictments. Historical patterns show federal authorities rarely pursue charges against prominent private citizens absent clear evidence of wrongdoing, and current oversight activity has remained civil or testimonial in nature. Late developments capable of shifting odds would require an unexpected DOJ action, new evidence surfacing from ongoing reviews, or a formal referral from congressional committees before the June deadline.