No credible criminal investigations or indictments against Bill Gates are underway in any U.S. federal or state jurisdiction as of late May 2026. Trader consensus at 98.6% for no charges by June 30 reflects the complete absence of formal prosecutorial action, with repeated social media claims of indictments over vaccines or other matters consistently clarified as civil proceedings or unfounded. Ongoing document reviews tied to past Epstein file releases and a scheduled June 10 congressional interview have generated public scrutiny but produced no new criminal allegations or evidence sufficient for charges. While the short remaining timeline leaves room for unforeseen developments such as sudden new testimony or filings to shift the outcome, the lack of momentum from authorities underpins the current pricing.