Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes faces Republican Michael Goldstein in Connecticut’s 4th congressional district on November 3, 2026, after both advanced unopposed or via primary on August 11. The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in consistent D+13 partisan voting indices and Himes’s 61% victory in 2024, underpins the 95.6% implied probability for Democrats. Himes has maintained substantial fundraising leads and faces no primary opposition, while ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. A commanding trader consensus aligns with the district’s voting patterns across Bridgeport, Stamford, and Fairfield County suburbs. Low-probability shifts could occur from a late national Republican wave, major scandal, or health-related withdrawal, though historical margins and structural advantages make such reversals unlikely before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCT-04 House Election Winner
CT-04 House Election Winner
$47,340 Vol.
$47,340 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
4%
$47,340 Vol.
$47,340 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$21,773 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$25,567 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes faces Republican Michael Goldstein in Connecticut’s 4th congressional district on November 3, 2026, after both advanced unopposed or via primary on August 11. The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in consistent D+13 partisan voting indices and Himes’s 61% victory in 2024, underpins the 95.6% implied probability for Democrats. Himes has maintained substantial fundraising leads and faces no primary opposition, while ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. A commanding trader consensus aligns with the district’s voting patterns across Bridgeport, Stamford, and Fairfield County suburbs. Low-probability shifts could occur from a late national Republican wave, major scandal, or health-related withdrawal, though historical margins and structural advantages make such reversals unlikely before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$47,340End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes faces Republican Michael Goldstein in Connecticut’s 4th congressional district on November 3, 2026, after both advanced unopposed or via primary on August 11. The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in consistent D+13 partisan voting indices and Himes’s 61% victory in 2024, underpins the 95.6% implied probability for Democrats. Himes has maintained substantial fundraising leads and faces no primary opposition, while ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. A commanding trader consensus aligns with the district’s voting patterns across Bridgeport, Stamford, and Fairfield County suburbs. Low-probability shifts could occur from a late national Republican wave, major scandal, or health-related withdrawal, though historical margins and structural advantages make such reversals unlikely before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,340End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes faces Republican Michael Goldstein in Connecticut’s 4th congressional district on November 3, 2026, after both advanced unopposed or via primary on August 11. The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in consistent D+13 partisan voting indices and Himes’s 61% victory in 2024, underpins the 95.6% implied probability for Democrats. Himes has maintained substantial fundraising leads and faces no primary opposition, while ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. A commanding trader consensus aligns with the district’s voting patterns across Bridgeport, Stamford, and Fairfield County suburbs. Low-probability shifts could occur from a late national Republican wave, major scandal, or health-related withdrawal, though historical margins and structural advantages make such reversals unlikely before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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