**CEO Ali Ghodsi’s June 2026 statement that 2026 represents a “terrible year” to go public amid a crowded calendar of major AI and tech offerings has anchored trader expectations for a delayed IPO.** This positioning, reinforced by Databricks’ completion of a $5 billion round at a $190 billion valuation in August 2026 (up from $134 billion in February), has elevated the implied probability of no IPO by December 31, 2027 to 64.5% while compressing near-term listing odds to roughly 7-8%. Strong revenue momentum—with annualized run-rate exceeding $7 billion and growth above 80% year-over-year—supports elevated private valuations near $192 billion, yet the absence of an S-1 filing keeps resolution timelines uncertain. If an IPO occurs, market-implied debut caps cluster around a median near $293 billion, reflecting trader caution over public-market reception relative to private benchmarks and comparable AI infrastructure multiples. Key upcoming catalysts include any confidential filing signals or shifts in broader IPO market conditions through 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$350B-$400B 96%
$200B-$250B 95%
$250B-$300B 95%
$150B-$200B 94%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
<$150B
93%
$150B-$200B
94%
$200B-$250B
95%
$250B-$300B
95%
$300B-$350B
94%
$350B-$400B
96%
$400B-$450B
94%
$450B+
35%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
65%
$350B-$400B 96%
$200B-$250B 95%
$250B-$300B 95%
$150B-$200B 94%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
<$150B
$0 Vol.
93%
$150B-$200B
$0 Vol.
94%
$200B-$250B
$18 Vol.
95%
$250B-$300B
$18 Vol.
95%
$300B-$350B
$18 Vol.
94%
$350B-$400B
$18 Vol.
96%
$400B-$450B
$0 Vol.
94%
$450B+
$18 Vol.
35%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$172 Vol.
65%
This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.**CEO Ali Ghodsi’s June 2026 statement that 2026 represents a “terrible year” to go public amid a crowded calendar of major AI and tech offerings has anchored trader expectations for a delayed IPO.** This positioning, reinforced by Databricks’ completion of a $5 billion round at a $190 billion valuation in August 2026 (up from $134 billion in February), has elevated the implied probability of no IPO by December 31, 2027 to 64.5% while compressing near-term listing odds to roughly 7-8%. Strong revenue momentum—with annualized run-rate exceeding $7 billion and growth above 80% year-over-year—supports elevated private valuations near $192 billion, yet the absence of an S-1 filing keeps resolution timelines uncertain. If an IPO occurs, market-implied debut caps cluster around a median near $293 billion, reflecting trader caution over public-market reception relative to private benchmarks and comparable AI infrastructure multiples. Key upcoming catalysts include any confidential filing signals or shifts in broader IPO market conditions through 2027.
This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 10:07 PM ET
Volume
$262End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 10:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.**CEO Ali Ghodsi’s June 2026 statement that 2026 represents a “terrible year” to go public amid a crowded calendar of major AI and tech offerings has anchored trader expectations for a delayed IPO.** This positioning, reinforced by Databricks’ completion of a $5 billion round at a $190 billion valuation in August 2026 (up from $134 billion in February), has elevated the implied probability of no IPO by December 31, 2027 to 64.5% while compressing near-term listing odds to roughly 7-8%. Strong revenue momentum—with annualized run-rate exceeding $7 billion and growth above 80% year-over-year—supports elevated private valuations near $192 billion, yet the absence of an S-1 filing keeps resolution timelines uncertain. If an IPO occurs, market-implied debut caps cluster around a median near $293 billion, reflecting trader caution over public-market reception relative to private benchmarks and comparable AI infrastructure multiples. Key upcoming catalysts include any confidential filing signals or shifts in broader IPO market conditions through 2027.
This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$262End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 10:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**CEO Ali Ghodsi’s June 2026 statement that 2026 represents a “terrible year” to go public amid a crowded calendar of major AI and tech offerings has anchored trader expectations for a delayed IPO.** This positioning, reinforced by Databricks’ completion of a $5 billion round at a $190 billion valuation in August 2026 (up from $134 billion in February), has elevated the implied probability of no IPO by December 31, 2027 to 64.5% while compressing near-term listing odds to roughly 7-8%. Strong revenue momentum—with annualized run-rate exceeding $7 billion and growth above 80% year-over-year—supports elevated private valuations near $192 billion, yet the absence of an S-1 filing keeps resolution timelines uncertain. If an IPO occurs, market-implied debut caps cluster around a median near $293 billion, reflecting trader caution over public-market reception relative to private benchmarks and comparable AI infrastructure multiples. Key upcoming catalysts include any confidential filing signals or shifts in broader IPO market conditions through 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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