Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters implied probabilities around 260-319 tweets for Elon Musk's X posting from April 7-14, reflecting his recent cadence of 250-300 posts per week amid consistent social media engagement. The past week's 277 tweets (March 27-April 3) and a burst of 92 posts April 2-4 (46/day average) before moderating set the baseline, with high variance from news-driven spikes like political commentary on government spending or AI developments. No major catalysts in the last 48 hours, but competitive dynamics hinge on Tesla Q1 earnings or SpaceX updates potentially pushing toward 320+, while quieter periods could dip to 240-259—traders weigh these swing factors in this skin-in-the-game forecast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated260-279 13%
280-299 13%
300-319 13%
240-259 12%
NEW
$138,006 Vol.
NEW
$138,006 Vol.
Apr 14, 2026
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
1%
200-219
4%
220-239
8%
240-259
12%
260-279
13%
280-299
13%
300-319
13%
320-339
11%
340-359
9%
360-379
8%
380-399
8%
400-419
5%
420-439
3%
440-459
2%
460-479
1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
260-279 13%
280-299 13%
300-319 13%
240-259 12%
NEW
$138,006 Vol.
NEW
$138,006 Vol.
Apr 14, 2026
<20
$40,217 Vol.
<1%
20-39
$14,351 Vol.
<1%
40-59
$18,967 Vol.
<1%
60-79
$6,365 Vol.
<1%
80-99
$2,768 Vol.
<1%
100-119
$2,542 Vol.
<1%
120-139
$2,374 Vol.
<1%
140-159
$2,150 Vol.
<1%
160-179
$1,622 Vol.
<1%
180-199
$1,321 Vol.
1%
200-219
$1,684 Vol.
4%
220-239
$1,498 Vol.
8%
240-259
$2,445 Vol.
12%
260-279
$2,975 Vol.
13%
280-299
$3,911 Vol.
13%
300-319
$3,021 Vol.
13%
320-339
$1,977 Vol.
11%
340-359
$1,882 Vol.
9%
360-379
$1,317 Vol.
8%
380-399
$1,216 Vol.
8%
400-419
$1,626 Vol.
5%
420-439
$1,561 Vol.
3%
440-459
$2,054 Vol.
2%
460-479
$1,556 Vol.
1%
480-499
$2,164 Vol.
<1%
500-519
$1,553 Vol.
<1%
520-539
$2,390 Vol.
<1%
540-559
$3,181 Vol.
<1%
560-579
$2,778 Vol.
<1%
580+
$7,658 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 7 12:00 PM ET to April 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters implied probabilities around 260-319 tweets for Elon Musk's X posting from April 7-14, reflecting his recent cadence of 250-300 posts per week amid consistent social media engagement. The past week's 277 tweets (March 27-April 3) and a burst of 92 posts April 2-4 (46/day average) before moderating set the baseline, with high variance from news-driven spikes like political commentary on government spending or AI developments. No major catalysts in the last 48 hours, but competitive dynamics hinge on Tesla Q1 earnings or SpaceX updates potentially pushing toward 320+, while quieter periods could dip to 240-259—traders weigh these swing factors in this skin-in-the-game forecast.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 7 12:00 PM ET to April 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 4, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volume
$138,006End Date
Apr 14, 2026Market Opened
Apr 4, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 7 12:00 PM ET to April 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters implied probabilities around 260-319 tweets for Elon Musk's X posting from April 7-14, reflecting his recent cadence of 250-300 posts per week amid consistent social media engagement. The past week's 277 tweets (March 27-April 3) and a burst of 92 posts April 2-4 (46/day average) before moderating set the baseline, with high variance from news-driven spikes like political commentary on government spending or AI developments. No major catalysts in the last 48 hours, but competitive dynamics hinge on Tesla Q1 earnings or SpaceX updates potentially pushing toward 320+, while quieter periods could dip to 240-259—traders weigh these swing factors in this skin-in-the-game forecast.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 7 12:00 PM ET to April 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$138,006End Date
Apr 14, 2026Market Opened
Apr 4, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters implied probabilities around 260-319 tweets for Elon Musk's X posting from April 7-14, reflecting his recent cadence of 250-300 posts per week amid consistent social media engagement. The past week's 277 tweets (March 27-April 3) and a burst of 92 posts April 2-4 (46/day average) before moderating set the baseline, with high variance from news-driven spikes like political commentary on government spending or AI developments. No major catalysts in the last 48 hours, but competitive dynamics hinge on Tesla Q1 earnings or SpaceX updates potentially pushing toward 320+, while quieter periods could dip to 240-259—traders weigh these swing factors in this skin-in-the-game forecast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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