Official KNMI observations at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol station—the market's resolution authority—recorded a maximum temperature of 16°C on May 10, 2026, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for this outcome amid heavily overcast skies and northerly winds that suppressed solar heating and advection of warmer air. This aligns with pre-event ECMWF and GFS model runs forecasting mid-teens highs under persistent low cloud cover, matching early May climatological averages of around 16°C for the region. While resolved with high certainty via automated sensor data and quality-controlled measurements, realistic challenges include rare post-processing revisions for instrument anomalies or microsite discrepancies, though historical precedents show such adjustments affect less than 0.1% of daily records. Traders await no further updates as the market nears final settlement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on May 10?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on May 10?
16°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$58,237 Vol.
$58,237 Vol.
May 10, 2026
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$58,237 Vol.
$58,237 Vol.
May 10, 2026
12°C or below
$2,299 Vol.
No
13°C
$2,218 Vol.
No
14°C
$4,548 Vol.
No
15°C
$14,736 Vol.
No
16°C
$9,611 Vol.
Yes
17°C
$13,707 Vol.
No
18°C
$3,855 Vol.
No
19°C
$3,560 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,438 Vol.
No
21°C
$1,164 Vol.
No
22°C or higher
$1,100 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official KNMI observations at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol station—the market's resolution authority—recorded a maximum temperature of 16°C on May 10, 2026, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for this outcome amid heavily overcast skies and northerly winds that suppressed solar heating and advection of warmer air. This aligns with pre-event ECMWF and GFS model runs forecasting mid-teens highs under persistent low cloud cover, matching early May climatological averages of around 16°C for the region. While resolved with high certainty via automated sensor data and quality-controlled measurements, realistic challenges include rare post-processing revisions for instrument anomalies or microsite discrepancies, though historical precedents show such adjustments affect less than 0.1% of daily records. Traders await no further updates as the market nears final settlement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$58,237End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official KNMI observations at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol station—the market's resolution authority—recorded a maximum temperature of 16°C on May 10, 2026, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for this outcome amid heavily overcast skies and northerly winds that suppressed solar heating and advection of warmer air. This aligns with pre-event ECMWF and GFS model runs forecasting mid-teens highs under persistent low cloud cover, matching early May climatological averages of around 16°C for the region. While resolved with high certainty via automated sensor data and quality-controlled measurements, realistic challenges include rare post-processing revisions for instrument anomalies or microsite discrepancies, though historical precedents show such adjustments affect less than 0.1% of daily records. Traders await no further updates as the market nears final settlement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$58,237End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official KNMI observations at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol station—the market's resolution authority—recorded a maximum temperature of 16°C on May 10, 2026, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for this outcome amid heavily overcast skies and northerly winds that suppressed solar heating and advection of warmer air. This aligns with pre-event ECMWF and GFS model runs forecasting mid-teens highs under persistent low cloud cover, matching early May climatological averages of around 16°C for the region. While resolved with high certainty via automated sensor data and quality-controlled measurements, realistic challenges include rare post-processing revisions for instrument anomalies or microsite discrepancies, though historical precedents show such adjustments affect less than 0.1% of daily records. Traders await no further updates as the market nears final settlement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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