Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 16°C in Ankara on March 27 at 29% implied probability, closely trailed by 17°C (27%) and 15°C (22%), reflecting tight clustering in latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models. These odds stem from persistent cool northerly airflow over central Anatolia, with model runs indicating daytime highs stabilizing around 15-17°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate winds. Differentiating factors include short-range forecast divergence—ECMWF slightly warmer due to subtle ridging, versus GFS cooler from deeper boundary-layer mixing—and historical late-March normals of 13-15°C, now nudged higher by a mild temperature anomaly. Key watch: Turkish MGM updates and real-time observations, as cloud cover could shave 1-2°C off peaks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on March 27?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 27?
16°C 30%
17°C 27%
15°C 22%
14°C 11%
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
4%
14°C
11%
15°C
22%
16°C
30%
17°C
27%
18°C
11%
19°C
3%
20°C
4%
21°C or higher
2%
16°C 30%
17°C 27%
15°C 22%
14°C 11%
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
4%
14°C
11%
15°C
22%
16°C
30%
17°C
27%
18°C
11%
19°C
3%
20°C
4%
21°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 16°C in Ankara on March 27 at 29% implied probability, closely trailed by 17°C (27%) and 15°C (22%), reflecting tight clustering in latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models. These odds stem from persistent cool northerly airflow over central Anatolia, with model runs indicating daytime highs stabilizing around 15-17°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate winds. Differentiating factors include short-range forecast divergence—ECMWF slightly warmer due to subtle ridging, versus GFS cooler from deeper boundary-layer mixing—and historical late-March normals of 13-15°C, now nudged higher by a mild temperature anomaly. Key watch: Turkish MGM updates and real-time observations, as cloud cover could shave 1-2°C off peaks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions