Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Taipei's highest temperature on March 28, with models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles centering implied probabilities around 22–24°C (21–26% each). Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA) latest guidance points to a daytime high near 23°C amid lingering frontal cloudiness from a recent weak cold surge, suppressing peaks despite weak southerly winds promoting mild advection. Ensemble spreads of 2–3°C capture variability from potential afternoon clearing versus persistent stratus decks, informed by recent soundings showing stable boundary layers. Historical late-March norms average 23°C highs, but current neutral ENSO conditions add little forcing. Watch CWA's 12Z update and hourly observations for resolution as diurnal heating peaks around 1400 LT.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Taipei on March 28?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 28?
24°C 29%
23°C 23%
22°C 21%
21°C 12.5%
NEW
NEW
Mar 28, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
3%
21°C
13%
22°C
21%
23°C
23%
24°C
29%
25°C
8%
26°C or higher
7%
24°C 29%
23°C 23%
22°C 21%
21°C 12.5%
NEW
NEW
Mar 28, 2026
16°C or below
$290 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$826 Vol.
1%
18°C
$519 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$438 Vol.
2%
20°C
$323 Vol.
3%
21°C
$578 Vol.
13%
22°C
$511 Vol.
21%
23°C
$745 Vol.
23%
24°C
$506 Vol.
29%
25°C
$651 Vol.
8%
26°C or higher
$621 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Taipei's highest temperature on March 28, with models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles centering implied probabilities around 22–24°C (21–26% each). Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA) latest guidance points to a daytime high near 23°C amid lingering frontal cloudiness from a recent weak cold surge, suppressing peaks despite weak southerly winds promoting mild advection. Ensemble spreads of 2–3°C capture variability from potential afternoon clearing versus persistent stratus decks, informed by recent soundings showing stable boundary layers. Historical late-March norms average 23°C highs, but current neutral ENSO conditions add little forcing. Watch CWA's 12Z update and hourly observations for resolution as diurnal heating peaks around 1400 LT.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Volume
$6,008End Date
Mar 28, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Taipei's highest temperature on March 28, with models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles centering implied probabilities around 22–24°C (21–26% each). Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA) latest guidance points to a daytime high near 23°C amid lingering frontal cloudiness from a recent weak cold surge, suppressing peaks despite weak southerly winds promoting mild advection. Ensemble spreads of 2–3°C capture variability from potential afternoon clearing versus persistent stratus decks, informed by recent soundings showing stable boundary layers. Historical late-March norms average 23°C highs, but current neutral ENSO conditions add little forcing. Watch CWA's 12Z update and hourly observations for resolution as diurnal heating peaks around 1400 LT.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,008End Date
Mar 28, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Taipei's highest temperature on March 28, with models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles centering implied probabilities around 22–24°C (21–26% each). Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA) latest guidance points to a daytime high near 23°C amid lingering frontal cloudiness from a recent weak cold surge, suppressing peaks despite weak southerly winds promoting mild advection. Ensemble spreads of 2–3°C capture variability from potential afternoon clearing versus persistent stratus decks, informed by recent soundings showing stable boundary layers. Historical late-March norms average 23°C highs, but current neutral ENSO conditions add little forcing. Watch CWA's 12Z update and hourly observations for resolution as diurnal heating peaks around 1400 LT.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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