Latest ensemble forecast models from ECMWF and GFS indicate a consensus for Istanbul's highest temperature on March 31 clustering around 16–17°C, reflecting trader sentiment with those outcomes at 25% and 23.5% implied probabilities, amid a mild southerly flow drawing warmer Mediterranean air into the Marmara region. Current upper-air patterns feature a weakening high-pressure ridge over the Balkans, promoting daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, though discrepancies in cloud cover projections and timing of a weak frontal boundary introduce uncertainty differentiating 15°C (17%) from warmer scenarios. Historical March highs average 13–14°C, making this outlook warmer than climatology; new model runs expected within 24 hours could refine the spread before resolution based on official Turkish State Meteorological Service observations at Istanbul Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on March 31?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on March 31?
17°C 25%
16°C 24%
10°C 17%
15°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
8°C or below
8%
9°C
5%
10°C
17%
11°C
13%
12°C
15%
13°C
15%
14°C
14%
15°C
16%
16°C
24%
17°C
25%
18°C or higher
13%
17°C 25%
16°C 24%
10°C 17%
15°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
8°C or below
$458 Vol.
8%
9°C
$129 Vol.
5%
10°C
$0 Vol.
17%
11°C
$0 Vol.
13%
12°C
$0 Vol.
15%
13°C
$5 Vol.
15%
14°C
$0 Vol.
14%
15°C
$10 Vol.
16%
16°C
$0 Vol.
24%
17°C
$0 Vol.
25%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecast models from ECMWF and GFS indicate a consensus for Istanbul's highest temperature on March 31 clustering around 16–17°C, reflecting trader sentiment with those outcomes at 25% and 23.5% implied probabilities, amid a mild southerly flow drawing warmer Mediterranean air into the Marmara region. Current upper-air patterns feature a weakening high-pressure ridge over the Balkans, promoting daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, though discrepancies in cloud cover projections and timing of a weak frontal boundary introduce uncertainty differentiating 15°C (17%) from warmer scenarios. Historical March highs average 13–14°C, making this outlook warmer than climatology; new model runs expected within 24 hours could refine the spread before resolution based on official Turkish State Meteorological Service observations at Istanbul Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Volume
$602End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecast models from ECMWF and GFS indicate a consensus for Istanbul's highest temperature on March 31 clustering around 16–17°C, reflecting trader sentiment with those outcomes at 25% and 23.5% implied probabilities, amid a mild southerly flow drawing warmer Mediterranean air into the Marmara region. Current upper-air patterns feature a weakening high-pressure ridge over the Balkans, promoting daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, though discrepancies in cloud cover projections and timing of a weak frontal boundary introduce uncertainty differentiating 15°C (17%) from warmer scenarios. Historical March highs average 13–14°C, making this outlook warmer than climatology; new model runs expected within 24 hours could refine the spread before resolution based on official Turkish State Meteorological Service observations at Istanbul Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$602End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecast models from ECMWF and GFS indicate a consensus for Istanbul's highest temperature on March 31 clustering around 16–17°C, reflecting trader sentiment with those outcomes at 25% and 23.5% implied probabilities, amid a mild southerly flow drawing warmer Mediterranean air into the Marmara region. Current upper-air patterns feature a weakening high-pressure ridge over the Balkans, promoting daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, though discrepancies in cloud cover projections and timing of a weak frontal boundary introduce uncertainty differentiating 15°C (17%) from warmer scenarios. Historical March highs average 13–14°C, making this outlook warmer than climatology; new model runs expected within 24 hours could refine the spread before resolution based on official Turkish State Meteorological Service observations at Istanbul Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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