Ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models underpin the neck-and-neck odds for Dallas's March 27 high temperature, with 80-81°F leading at 18% near the multi-model mean of 81°F under persistent southerly winds and high-pressure ridging. GFS's warmer 12Z run boosts 86°F+ to 15.5% by amplifying diurnal heating, while ECMWF's cooler bias from anticipated afternoon clouds elevates 76-79°F ranges to 29% combined. National Weather Service's latest guidance pegs 82°F, but urban heat island effects and residual soil moisture from prior rains differentiate lower clusters like 74-75°F (11%), reflecting spring forecast spread where 2-meter temperature errors often exceed 3°F. Traders watch 00Z updates for tipping points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on March 27?
Highest temperature in Dallas on March 27?
80-81°F 16%
86°F or higher 15%
76-77°F 15%
78-79°F 14%
$18,502 Vol.
$18,502 Vol.
67°F or below
1%
68-69°F
2%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
6%
74-75°F
11%
76-77°F
15%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
16%
82-83°F
12%
84-85°F
11%
86°F or higher
15%
80-81°F 16%
86°F or higher 15%
76-77°F 15%
78-79°F 14%
$18,502 Vol.
$18,502 Vol.
67°F or below
1%
68-69°F
2%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
6%
74-75°F
11%
76-77°F
15%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
16%
82-83°F
12%
84-85°F
11%
86°F or higher
15%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models underpin the neck-and-neck odds for Dallas's March 27 high temperature, with 80-81°F leading at 18% near the multi-model mean of 81°F under persistent southerly winds and high-pressure ridging. GFS's warmer 12Z run boosts 86°F+ to 15.5% by amplifying diurnal heating, while ECMWF's cooler bias from anticipated afternoon clouds elevates 76-79°F ranges to 29% combined. National Weather Service's latest guidance pegs 82°F, but urban heat island effects and residual soil moisture from prior rains differentiate lower clusters like 74-75°F (11%), reflecting spring forecast spread where 2-meter temperature errors often exceed 3°F. Traders watch 00Z updates for tipping points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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