Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward 88-89°F (29.5%) over 86-87°F (29.0%) for Dallas's highest temperature on March 26, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble means clustering around 87-88°F under a potent upper-level ridge amplifying southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico. This setup promotes efficient boundary-layer heating via strong insolation and minimal cloud interference, with 850mb temperatures near 20°C supporting those peaks. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences—GFS leaning hotter with deeper mixing, ECMWF cooler due to projected shear—plus uncertainty in morning lows (around 65°F) and urban heat island effects at DFW observation site. NWS official forecast of 89°F bolsters the upper bin, though historical late-March variability tempers extremes beyond 92°F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on March 26?
Highest temperature in Dallas on March 26?
88-89°F 30%
86-87°F 29%
90-91°F 20%
84-85°F 14%
$11,560 Vol.
$11,560 Vol.
79°F or below
1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
14%
86-87°F
29%
88-89°F
30%
90-91°F
20%
92-93°F
8%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
88-89°F 30%
86-87°F 29%
90-91°F 20%
84-85°F 14%
$11,560 Vol.
$11,560 Vol.
79°F or below
1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
14%
86-87°F
29%
88-89°F
30%
90-91°F
20%
92-93°F
8%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward 88-89°F (29.5%) over 86-87°F (29.0%) for Dallas's highest temperature on March 26, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble means clustering around 87-88°F under a potent upper-level ridge amplifying southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico. This setup promotes efficient boundary-layer heating via strong insolation and minimal cloud interference, with 850mb temperatures near 20°C supporting those peaks. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences—GFS leaning hotter with deeper mixing, ECMWF cooler due to projected shear—plus uncertainty in morning lows (around 65°F) and urban heat island effects at DFW observation site. NWS official forecast of 89°F bolsters the upper bin, though historical late-March variability tempers extremes beyond 92°F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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