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Highest temperature in Toronto on March 31?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Toronto on March 31?

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 31

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 31

8°C or higher 95%

6°C 2.0%

7°C 2.0%

5°C 1.0%

Polymarket
NEW

8°C or higher 95%

6°C 2.0%

7°C 2.0%

5°C 1.0%

Polymarket
NEW

-2°C or below

$722 Vol.

1%

-1°C

$740 Vol.

1%

0°C

$244 Vol.

1%

1°C

$309 Vol.

1%

2°C

$854 Vol.

1%

3°C

$845 Vol.

1%

4°C

$212 Vol.

1%

5°C

$193 Vol.

1%

6°C

$241 Vol.

2%

7°C

$529 Vol.

2%

8°C or higher

$2,651 Vol.

95%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95.5% implied probability to Toronto recording a high of 8°C or higher on March 31, backed by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) forecasts projecting daytime maxima of 10–13°C amid a persistent upper-level ridge directing mild southerly flow into southern Ontario. Ensemble model runs from ECMWF, GFS, and GEM over the past 48 hours show tight agreement on above-normal temperatures, with minimal spread and no signals of a late-winter cooldown; historical late-March climatology for Toronto averages 6–9°C, further supporting this positioning. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen cold front or northerly wind shift, though low-probability per current 500-mb pattern stability—watch ECCC's next advisory update for refinements.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,431
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:01 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95.5% implied probability to Toronto recording a high of 8°C or higher on March 31, backed by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) forecasts projecting daytime maxima of 10–13°C amid a persistent upper-level ridge directing mild southerly flow into southern Ontario. Ensemble model runs from ECMWF, GFS, and GEM over the past 48 hours show tight agreement on above-normal temperatures, with minimal spread and no signals of a late-winter cooldown; historical late-March climatology for Toronto averages 6–9°C, further supporting this positioning. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen cold front or northerly wind shift, though low-probability per current 500-mb pattern stability—watch ECCC's next advisory update for refinements.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95.5% implied probability to Toronto recording a high of 8°C or higher on March 31, backed by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) forecasts projecting daytime maxima of 10–13°C amid a persistent upper-level ridge directing mild southerly flow into southern Ontario. Ensemble model runs from ECMWF, GFS, and GEM over the past 48 hours show tight agreement on above-normal temperatures, with minimal spread and no signals of a late-winter cooldown; historical late-March climatology for Toronto averages 6–9°C, further supporting this positioning. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen cold front or northerly wind shift, though low-probability per current 500-mb pattern stability—watch ECCC's next advisory update for refinements.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Toronto on March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "8°C or higher" at 95%, followed by "6°C" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Toronto on March 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Toronto on March 31?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Toronto on March 31?" is "8°C or higher" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "6°C" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Toronto on March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.