Current numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration show the strongest consensus for a Beijing maximum temperature near 29–30 °C on July 10, supporting the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Primary drivers include the position and strength of the western Pacific subtropical high, which favors warm, subsiding air, modulated by variable low-level moisture and the timing of any diurnal convection or sea-breeze effects. Small probability spreads between adjacent bins reflect typical model spread in afternoon peak temperature driven by uncertainties in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and urban heat-island intensity. Updated high-resolution runs and ensemble guidance expected over the next 48 hours will likely tighten or shift these implied odds as the event approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on July 10?
Highest temperature in Beijing on July 10?
29°C 27%
30°C 25%
28°C 20.9%
32°C 9.7%
NEW
NEW
Jul 10, 2026
27°C or below
8%
28°C
21%
29°C
27%
30°C
25%
31°C
10%
32°C
9%
33°C
3%
34°C
1%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
29°C 27%
30°C 25%
28°C 20.9%
32°C 9.7%
NEW
NEW
Jul 10, 2026
27°C or below
$362 Vol.
8%
28°C
$107 Vol.
21%
29°C
$714 Vol.
27%
30°C
$283 Vol.
25%
31°C
$1,399 Vol.
10%
32°C
$730 Vol.
9%
33°C
$901 Vol.
3%
34°C
$58 Vol.
1%
35°C
$226 Vol.
1%
36°C
$263 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$1,311 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration show the strongest consensus for a Beijing maximum temperature near 29–30 °C on July 10, supporting the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Primary drivers include the position and strength of the western Pacific subtropical high, which favors warm, subsiding air, modulated by variable low-level moisture and the timing of any diurnal convection or sea-breeze effects. Small probability spreads between adjacent bins reflect typical model spread in afternoon peak temperature driven by uncertainties in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and urban heat-island intensity. Updated high-resolution runs and ensemble guidance expected over the next 48 hours will likely tighten or shift these implied odds as the event approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$6,350End Date
Jul 10, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration show the strongest consensus for a Beijing maximum temperature near 29–30 °C on July 10, supporting the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Primary drivers include the position and strength of the western Pacific subtropical high, which favors warm, subsiding air, modulated by variable low-level moisture and the timing of any diurnal convection or sea-breeze effects. Small probability spreads between adjacent bins reflect typical model spread in afternoon peak temperature driven by uncertainties in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and urban heat-island intensity. Updated high-resolution runs and ensemble guidance expected over the next 48 hours will likely tighten or shift these implied odds as the event approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,350End Date
Jul 10, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration show the strongest consensus for a Beijing maximum temperature near 29–30 °C on July 10, supporting the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Primary drivers include the position and strength of the western Pacific subtropical high, which favors warm, subsiding air, modulated by variable low-level moisture and the timing of any diurnal convection or sea-breeze effects. Small probability spreads between adjacent bins reflect typical model spread in afternoon peak temperature driven by uncertainties in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and urban heat-island intensity. Updated high-resolution runs and ensemble guidance expected over the next 48 hours will likely tighten or shift these implied odds as the event approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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