Current numerical weather prediction models from sources like the China Meteorological Administration indicate peak temperatures in Chengdu on July 10 likely falling in the 36–38°C range, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around those thresholds. Persistent summer high pressure over the Sichuan basin, combined with high humidity and limited cloud cover in recent days, supports daytime maxima near or above seasonal averages of 30–32°C, while scattered thunderstorms could cap extremes through evaporative cooling. Model consensus shows modest spread due to variable steering flows and moisture advection, with historical July analogs rarely exceeding 39°C without strong subsidence. Updated short-range forecasts and official observations on July 10 will provide the final resolution data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on July 10?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 10?
38°C 28%
39°C 23%
37°C 19%
40°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Jul 10, 2026
32°C or below
1%
33°C
1%
34°C
2%
35°C
3%
36°C
8%
37°C
19%
38°C
28%
39°C
23%
40°C
8%
41°C
2%
42°C or higher
<1%
38°C 28%
39°C 23%
37°C 19%
40°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Jul 10, 2026
32°C or below
$1,516 Vol.
1%
33°C
$296 Vol.
1%
34°C
$274 Vol.
2%
35°C
$437 Vol.
3%
36°C
$1,209 Vol.
8%
37°C
$554 Vol.
19%
38°C
$1,826 Vol.
28%
39°C
$639 Vol.
23%
40°C
$444 Vol.
8%
41°C
$148 Vol.
2%
42°C or higher
$1,364 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models from sources like the China Meteorological Administration indicate peak temperatures in Chengdu on July 10 likely falling in the 36–38°C range, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around those thresholds. Persistent summer high pressure over the Sichuan basin, combined with high humidity and limited cloud cover in recent days, supports daytime maxima near or above seasonal averages of 30–32°C, while scattered thunderstorms could cap extremes through evaporative cooling. Model consensus shows modest spread due to variable steering flows and moisture advection, with historical July analogs rarely exceeding 39°C without strong subsidence. Updated short-range forecasts and official observations on July 10 will provide the final resolution data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$8,709End Date
Jul 10, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models from sources like the China Meteorological Administration indicate peak temperatures in Chengdu on July 10 likely falling in the 36–38°C range, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around those thresholds. Persistent summer high pressure over the Sichuan basin, combined with high humidity and limited cloud cover in recent days, supports daytime maxima near or above seasonal averages of 30–32°C, while scattered thunderstorms could cap extremes through evaporative cooling. Model consensus shows modest spread due to variable steering flows and moisture advection, with historical July analogs rarely exceeding 39°C without strong subsidence. Updated short-range forecasts and official observations on July 10 will provide the final resolution data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,709End Date
Jul 10, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather prediction models from sources like the China Meteorological Administration indicate peak temperatures in Chengdu on July 10 likely falling in the 36–38°C range, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around those thresholds. Persistent summer high pressure over the Sichuan basin, combined with high humidity and limited cloud cover in recent days, supports daytime maxima near or above seasonal averages of 30–32°C, while scattered thunderstorms could cap extremes through evaporative cooling. Model consensus shows modest spread due to variable steering flows and moisture advection, with historical July analogs rarely exceeding 39°C without strong subsidence. Updated short-range forecasts and official observations on July 10 will provide the final resolution data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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