Official National Weather Service observations at Chicago O'Hare International Airport (KORD), the designated station for this market, recorded a maximum temperature of 55°F or below on April 30, 2026, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for that outcome as data finalized. This reflects a persistent cool mid-level air mass over the Midwest following a cold frontal passage earlier in the week, reinforced by north-northwest winds of 10-15 mph, partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, and limited solar insolation—conditions aligned with High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and Global Forecast System (GFS) model consensus projecting highs near 50°F well below the 65°F climatological normal. Midday readings already peaked around 53°F, confirming suppressed heating. Realistic challenges to this positioning would require rare post-hoc data revisions from NOAA quality control, such as sensor recalibrations, though such adjustments are infrequent for finalized Automated Surface Observing System measurements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on April 30?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 30?
55°F or below 100.0%
56-57°F <1%
58-59°F <1%
60-61°F <1%
$50,681 Vol.
$50,681 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
55°F or below
Yes
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74°F or higher
No
55°F or below 100.0%
56-57°F <1%
58-59°F <1%
60-61°F <1%
$50,681 Vol.
$50,681 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
55°F or below
$14,750 Vol.
Yes
56-57°F
$6,474 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$7,147 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$5,390 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$3,071 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$6,421 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$1,299 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$943 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$1,439 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$820 Vol.
No
74°F or higher
$2,926 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official National Weather Service observations at Chicago O'Hare International Airport (KORD), the designated station for this market, recorded a maximum temperature of 55°F or below on April 30, 2026, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for that outcome as data finalized. This reflects a persistent cool mid-level air mass over the Midwest following a cold frontal passage earlier in the week, reinforced by north-northwest winds of 10-15 mph, partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, and limited solar insolation—conditions aligned with High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and Global Forecast System (GFS) model consensus projecting highs near 50°F well below the 65°F climatological normal. Midday readings already peaked around 53°F, confirming suppressed heating. Realistic challenges to this positioning would require rare post-hoc data revisions from NOAA quality control, such as sensor recalibrations, though such adjustments are infrequent for finalized Automated Surface Observing System measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volume
$50,681End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official National Weather Service observations at Chicago O'Hare International Airport (KORD), the designated station for this market, recorded a maximum temperature of 55°F or below on April 30, 2026, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for that outcome as data finalized. This reflects a persistent cool mid-level air mass over the Midwest following a cold frontal passage earlier in the week, reinforced by north-northwest winds of 10-15 mph, partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, and limited solar insolation—conditions aligned with High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and Global Forecast System (GFS) model consensus projecting highs near 50°F well below the 65°F climatological normal. Midday readings already peaked around 53°F, confirming suppressed heating. Realistic challenges to this positioning would require rare post-hoc data revisions from NOAA quality control, such as sensor recalibrations, though such adjustments are infrequent for finalized Automated Surface Observing System measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$50,681End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Official National Weather Service observations at Chicago O'Hare International Airport (KORD), the designated station for this market, recorded a maximum temperature of 55°F or below on April 30, 2026, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for that outcome as data finalized. This reflects a persistent cool mid-level air mass over the Midwest following a cold frontal passage earlier in the week, reinforced by north-northwest winds of 10-15 mph, partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, and limited solar insolation—conditions aligned with High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and Global Forecast System (GFS) model consensus projecting highs near 50°F well below the 65°F climatological normal. Midday readings already peaked around 53°F, confirming suppressed heating. Realistic challenges to this positioning would require rare post-hoc data revisions from NOAA quality control, such as sensor recalibrations, though such adjustments are infrequent for finalized Automated Surface Observing System measurements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions