Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a moderating air mass over the Midwest, with a weak frontal boundary and increased cloud cover limiting daytime heating in Chicago on June 19. This setup favors afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s at official reporting sites, consistent with market-implied odds clustering around 76–79 °F. Lake Michigan’s cool, stable boundary layer and onshore flow add further suppression, especially if winds remain easterly. Historical June normals near 82 °F provide context, yet current short-range guidance shows a several-degree negative departure driven by post-storm stabilization following the June 11 severe weather outbreak. Uncertainty in exact cloud timing and boundary placement keeps adjacent bins competitive, with traders monitoring updated NWS Chicago forecasts and mesoscale model trends through resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on June 19?
Highest temperature in Chicago on June 19?
76-77°F 100.0%
67°F or below <1%
68-69°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
$42,903 Vol.
$42,903 Vol.
Jun 19, 2026
67°F or below
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
Yes
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86°F or higher
No
76-77°F 100.0%
67°F or below <1%
68-69°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
$42,903 Vol.
$42,903 Vol.
Jun 19, 2026
67°F or below
$245 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$1,432 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$2,963 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$5,340 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$14,970 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$7,264 Vol.
Yes
78-79°F
$3,868 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$2,489 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$1,263 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$1,247 Vol.
No
86°F or higher
$1,820 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a moderating air mass over the Midwest, with a weak frontal boundary and increased cloud cover limiting daytime heating in Chicago on June 19. This setup favors afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s at official reporting sites, consistent with market-implied odds clustering around 76–79 °F. Lake Michigan’s cool, stable boundary layer and onshore flow add further suppression, especially if winds remain easterly. Historical June normals near 82 °F provide context, yet current short-range guidance shows a several-degree negative departure driven by post-storm stabilization following the June 11 severe weather outbreak. Uncertainty in exact cloud timing and boundary placement keeps adjacent bins competitive, with traders monitoring updated NWS Chicago forecasts and mesoscale model trends through resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$42,903End Date
Jun 19, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a moderating air mass over the Midwest, with a weak frontal boundary and increased cloud cover limiting daytime heating in Chicago on June 19. This setup favors afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s at official reporting sites, consistent with market-implied odds clustering around 76–79 °F. Lake Michigan’s cool, stable boundary layer and onshore flow add further suppression, especially if winds remain easterly. Historical June normals near 82 °F provide context, yet current short-range guidance shows a several-degree negative departure driven by post-storm stabilization following the June 11 severe weather outbreak. Uncertainty in exact cloud timing and boundary placement keeps adjacent bins competitive, with traders monitoring updated NWS Chicago forecasts and mesoscale model trends through resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$42,903End Date
Jun 19, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a moderating air mass over the Midwest, with a weak frontal boundary and increased cloud cover limiting daytime heating in Chicago on June 19. This setup favors afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s at official reporting sites, consistent with market-implied odds clustering around 76–79 °F. Lake Michigan’s cool, stable boundary layer and onshore flow add further suppression, especially if winds remain easterly. Historical June normals near 82 °F provide context, yet current short-range guidance shows a several-degree negative departure driven by post-storm stabilization following the June 11 severe weather outbreak. Uncertainty in exact cloud timing and boundary placement keeps adjacent bins competitive, with traders monitoring updated NWS Chicago forecasts and mesoscale model trends through resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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