Trader consensus on Chicago's March 28 high temperature clusters tightly around 50-53°F, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast predicting a daytime peak near 52°F under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds aiding modest warm-air advection. Ensemble models from GFS and ECMWF show low spreads, with means hovering at 51-52°F, differentiating the top bins from cooler 48-49°F odds via stronger ridging aloft suppressing cold fronts. Recent observations of overnight lows in the upper 30s set a baseline for 10-15°F diurnal warming, while historical late-March norms (average 48°F) and urban heat island effects at O'Hare nudge probabilities higher, though lingering stratiform clouds cap upside beyond 55°F. Key watch: afternoon heating thresholds per hourly updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on March 28?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 28?
50-51°F 26%
52-53°F 25%
48-49°F 17%
54-55°F 17%
43°F or below
6%
44-45°F
8%
46-47°F
16%
48-49°F
18%
50-51°F
26%
52-53°F
25%
54-55°F
13%
56-57°F
5%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
2%
62°F or higher
1%
50-51°F 26%
52-53°F 25%
48-49°F 17%
54-55°F 17%
43°F or below
6%
44-45°F
8%
46-47°F
16%
48-49°F
18%
50-51°F
26%
52-53°F
25%
54-55°F
13%
56-57°F
5%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
2%
62°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Chicago's March 28 high temperature clusters tightly around 50-53°F, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast predicting a daytime peak near 52°F under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds aiding modest warm-air advection. Ensemble models from GFS and ECMWF show low spreads, with means hovering at 51-52°F, differentiating the top bins from cooler 48-49°F odds via stronger ridging aloft suppressing cold fronts. Recent observations of overnight lows in the upper 30s set a baseline for 10-15°F diurnal warming, while historical late-March norms (average 48°F) and urban heat island effects at O'Hare nudge probabilities higher, though lingering stratiform clouds cap upside beyond 55°F. Key watch: afternoon heating thresholds per hourly updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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