Latest National Weather Service forecasts for Dallas-Fort Worth peg April 4 highs around 71-74°F at Dallas Love Field, reflecting model consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles amid an approaching storm system bringing showers and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday morning. Trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly at 70-71°F (28%) and 72-73°F (22.5%), driven by recent severe weather risk updates over the past 24 hours that highlight increased cloud cover and precipitation chances suppressing peak heating. Differentiating factors include storm timing—earlier onshore flow and heavier coverage favor cooler 70s, while delayed activity allows mid-70s—plus boundary layer moisture from prior warm days (e.g., 86°F on April 1). New model runs and NWS discussions expected this evening could sharpen resolution ahead of tomorrow's observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on April 4?
Highest temperature in Dallas on April 4?
70-71°F 28.8%
72-73°F 22%
74-75°F 17%
76-77°F 12%
$20,807 Vol.
$20,807 Vol.
67°F or below
4%
68-69°F
9%
70-71°F
29%
72-73°F
22%
74-75°F
17%
76-77°F
12%
78-79°F
4%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
1%
86°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 28.8%
72-73°F 22%
74-75°F 17%
76-77°F 12%
$20,807 Vol.
$20,807 Vol.
67°F or below
4%
68-69°F
9%
70-71°F
29%
72-73°F
22%
74-75°F
17%
76-77°F
12%
78-79°F
4%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
1%
86°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service forecasts for Dallas-Fort Worth peg April 4 highs around 71-74°F at Dallas Love Field, reflecting model consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles amid an approaching storm system bringing showers and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday morning. Trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly at 70-71°F (28%) and 72-73°F (22.5%), driven by recent severe weather risk updates over the past 24 hours that highlight increased cloud cover and precipitation chances suppressing peak heating. Differentiating factors include storm timing—earlier onshore flow and heavier coverage favor cooler 70s, while delayed activity allows mid-70s—plus boundary layer moisture from prior warm days (e.g., 86°F on April 1). New model runs and NWS discussions expected this evening could sharpen resolution ahead of tomorrow's observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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