National Weather Service guidance for Houston shows a consensus forecast high of 81-85°F today under sunny skies and light south winds fostering efficient daytime heating from morning temperatures already in the 70s, yielding 100% market-implied probability for 68°F or higher. NOAA model ensembles, including the Global Forecast System, uniformly project upper-70s to mid-80s peaks amid an upper-level ridge promoting warm advection, aligning with early-May climatological normals around 83°F and far exceeding the historical lowest daily high of 70°F on May 4. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists, but a dramatic shift—like sudden marine layer persistence or unforecast cold front—would be needed to challenge this; track real-time observations from Houston Intercontinental (IAH) or Hobby (HOU) airports through afternoon for resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on May 4?
Highest temperature in Houston on May 4?
68°F or higher 100.0%
49°F or below <1%
50-51°F <1%
52-53°F <1%
$44,325 Vol.
$44,325 Vol.
May 4, 2026
49°F or below
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68°F or higher
Yes
68°F or higher 100.0%
49°F or below <1%
50-51°F <1%
52-53°F <1%
$44,325 Vol.
$44,325 Vol.
May 4, 2026
49°F or below
$3,483 Vol.
No
50-51°F
$1,616 Vol.
No
52-53°F
$1,334 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$1,209 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$1,909 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$1,799 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$1,711 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$3,220 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$3,521 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$8,930 Vol.
No
68°F or higher
$15,593 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance for Houston shows a consensus forecast high of 81-85°F today under sunny skies and light south winds fostering efficient daytime heating from morning temperatures already in the 70s, yielding 100% market-implied probability for 68°F or higher. NOAA model ensembles, including the Global Forecast System, uniformly project upper-70s to mid-80s peaks amid an upper-level ridge promoting warm advection, aligning with early-May climatological normals around 83°F and far exceeding the historical lowest daily high of 70°F on May 4. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists, but a dramatic shift—like sudden marine layer persistence or unforecast cold front—would be needed to challenge this; track real-time observations from Houston Intercontinental (IAH) or Hobby (HOU) airports through afternoon for resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$44,325End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance for Houston shows a consensus forecast high of 81-85°F today under sunny skies and light south winds fostering efficient daytime heating from morning temperatures already in the 70s, yielding 100% market-implied probability for 68°F or higher. NOAA model ensembles, including the Global Forecast System, uniformly project upper-70s to mid-80s peaks amid an upper-level ridge promoting warm advection, aligning with early-May climatological normals around 83°F and far exceeding the historical lowest daily high of 70°F on May 4. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists, but a dramatic shift—like sudden marine layer persistence or unforecast cold front—would be needed to challenge this; track real-time observations from Houston Intercontinental (IAH) or Hobby (HOU) airports through afternoon for resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$44,325End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
National Weather Service guidance for Houston shows a consensus forecast high of 81-85°F today under sunny skies and light south winds fostering efficient daytime heating from morning temperatures already in the 70s, yielding 100% market-implied probability for 68°F or higher. NOAA model ensembles, including the Global Forecast System, uniformly project upper-70s to mid-80s peaks amid an upper-level ridge promoting warm advection, aligning with early-May climatological normals around 83°F and far exceeding the historical lowest daily high of 70°F on May 4. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists, but a dramatic shift—like sudden marine layer persistence or unforecast cold front—would be needed to challenge this; track real-time observations from Houston Intercontinental (IAH) or Hobby (HOU) airports through afternoon for resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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