Official NOAA observations at Istanbul Airport, the market's designated resolution source, recorded a peak temperature of 22°C during the early afternoon of May 7, aligning with Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) hourly readings topping out at 22°C under partly cloudy skies before cooling to 18.7°C by late evening. This outcome reflects a mild rebound from the recent early-May cold snap—highs of 12–18°C on May 3–6 driven by northerly Black Sea airflows—with GFS and ECMWF models accurately forecasting 22–23°C highs amid a building high-pressure ridge and light winds. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability underscores this data-backed certainty, though a rare post hoc revision in NOAA's quality-controlled archive could theoretically shift it; final MGM daily summaries expected soon affirm the reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 7?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 7?
22°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$90,104 Vol.
$90,104 Vol.
May 7, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$90,104 Vol.
$90,104 Vol.
May 7, 2026
14°C or below
$1,455 Vol.
No
15°C
$1,292 Vol.
No
16°C
$2,369 Vol.
No
17°C
$4,660 Vol.
No
18°C
$4,348 Vol.
No
19°C
$4,311 Vol.
No
20°C
$5,254 Vol.
No
21°C
$27,417 Vol.
No
22°C
$16,204 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$12,094 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$10,699 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official NOAA observations at Istanbul Airport, the market's designated resolution source, recorded a peak temperature of 22°C during the early afternoon of May 7, aligning with Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) hourly readings topping out at 22°C under partly cloudy skies before cooling to 18.7°C by late evening. This outcome reflects a mild rebound from the recent early-May cold snap—highs of 12–18°C on May 3–6 driven by northerly Black Sea airflows—with GFS and ECMWF models accurately forecasting 22–23°C highs amid a building high-pressure ridge and light winds. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability underscores this data-backed certainty, though a rare post hoc revision in NOAA's quality-controlled archive could theoretically shift it; final MGM daily summaries expected soon affirm the reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 5, 2026, 12:38 AM ET
Volume
$90,104End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 12:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official NOAA observations at Istanbul Airport, the market's designated resolution source, recorded a peak temperature of 22°C during the early afternoon of May 7, aligning with Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) hourly readings topping out at 22°C under partly cloudy skies before cooling to 18.7°C by late evening. This outcome reflects a mild rebound from the recent early-May cold snap—highs of 12–18°C on May 3–6 driven by northerly Black Sea airflows—with GFS and ECMWF models accurately forecasting 22–23°C highs amid a building high-pressure ridge and light winds. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability underscores this data-backed certainty, though a rare post hoc revision in NOAA's quality-controlled archive could theoretically shift it; final MGM daily summaries expected soon affirm the reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$90,104End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 12:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official NOAA observations at Istanbul Airport, the market's designated resolution source, recorded a peak temperature of 22°C during the early afternoon of May 7, aligning with Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) hourly readings topping out at 22°C under partly cloudy skies before cooling to 18.7°C by late evening. This outcome reflects a mild rebound from the recent early-May cold snap—highs of 12–18°C on May 3–6 driven by northerly Black Sea airflows—with GFS and ECMWF models accurately forecasting 22–23°C highs amid a building high-pressure ridge and light winds. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability underscores this data-backed certainty, though a rare post hoc revision in NOAA's quality-controlled archive could theoretically shift it; final MGM daily summaries expected soon affirm the reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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