Traders see 28–30°C as the most likely range for Istanbul’s July 8 maximum because ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS place the city under a stable subtropical ridge with light northerly flow off the Black Sea, yielding daytime highs near the long-term July average of 28–29 °C. Recent model runs show minimal day-to-day spread and no strong southerly advection that would push readings to 32 °C or higher, while the moderating influence of the adjacent seas and typical urban heat-island effects keep the lower tail (26 °C or below) improbable. With resolution only 48 hours away, the tight clustering around 29 °C reflects both climatological precedent and the absence of any short-term drivers capable of shifting the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on July 8?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 8?
30°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$50,077 Vol.
$50,077 Vol.
Jul 8, 2026
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$50,077 Vol.
$50,077 Vol.
Jul 8, 2026
25°C or below
$2,607 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,433 Vol.
No
27°C
$3,433 Vol.
No
28°C
$3,719 Vol.
No
29°C
$4,819 Vol.
No
30°C
$13,474 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$5,521 Vol.
No
32°C
$6,883 Vol.
No
33°C
$3,075 Vol.
No
34°C
$2,018 Vol.
No
35°C or higher
$2,097 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 28–30°C as the most likely range for Istanbul’s July 8 maximum because ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS place the city under a stable subtropical ridge with light northerly flow off the Black Sea, yielding daytime highs near the long-term July average of 28–29 °C. Recent model runs show minimal day-to-day spread and no strong southerly advection that would push readings to 32 °C or higher, while the moderating influence of the adjacent seas and typical urban heat-island effects keep the lower tail (26 °C or below) improbable. With resolution only 48 hours away, the tight clustering around 29 °C reflects both climatological precedent and the absence of any short-term drivers capable of shifting the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 6, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$50,077End Date
Jul 8, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 28–30°C as the most likely range for Istanbul’s July 8 maximum because ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS place the city under a stable subtropical ridge with light northerly flow off the Black Sea, yielding daytime highs near the long-term July average of 28–29 °C. Recent model runs show minimal day-to-day spread and no strong southerly advection that would push readings to 32 °C or higher, while the moderating influence of the adjacent seas and typical urban heat-island effects keep the lower tail (26 °C or below) improbable. With resolution only 48 hours away, the tight clustering around 29 °C reflects both climatological precedent and the absence of any short-term drivers capable of shifting the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$50,077End Date
Jul 8, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders see 28–30°C as the most likely range for Istanbul’s July 8 maximum because ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS place the city under a stable subtropical ridge with light northerly flow off the Black Sea, yielding daytime highs near the long-term July average of 28–29 °C. Recent model runs show minimal day-to-day spread and no strong southerly advection that would push readings to 32 °C or higher, while the moderating influence of the adjacent seas and typical urban heat-island effects keep the lower tail (26 °C or below) improbable. With resolution only 48 hours away, the tight clustering around 29 °C reflects both climatological precedent and the absence of any short-term drivers capable of shifting the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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