Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of latest AEMET forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble means projecting Madrid's highest temperature on April 16 at 24-26°C, with 25°C leading at 37% implied probability ahead of 26°C (29%) and 24°C (21%). This positioning stems from a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia ushering southerly winds and clear skies after recent cooler days, including a 15°C maximum on April 13; however, model spread arises from varying predictions on afternoon boundary-layer mixing and potential thin high clouds capping peaks. Historical April averages hover around 19°C, underscoring the mild above-normal outlook amid low precipitation risk. Watch AEMET's final midday update and early observations for shifts as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on April 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 16?
25°C 36%
26°C 31%
24°C 19%
27°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Apr 16, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C
19%
25°C
36%
26°C
31%
27°C
12%
28°C
3%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
1%
25°C 36%
26°C 31%
24°C 19%
27°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Apr 16, 2026
20°C or below
$307 Vol.
1%
21°C
$158 Vol.
1%
22°C
$254 Vol.
2%
23°C
$254 Vol.
2%
24°C
$239 Vol.
19%
25°C
$313 Vol.
36%
26°C
$246 Vol.
31%
27°C
$211 Vol.
12%
28°C
$159 Vol.
3%
29°C
$168 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$298 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of latest AEMET forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble means projecting Madrid's highest temperature on April 16 at 24-26°C, with 25°C leading at 37% implied probability ahead of 26°C (29%) and 24°C (21%). This positioning stems from a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia ushering southerly winds and clear skies after recent cooler days, including a 15°C maximum on April 13; however, model spread arises from varying predictions on afternoon boundary-layer mixing and potential thin high clouds capping peaks. Historical April averages hover around 19°C, underscoring the mild above-normal outlook amid low precipitation risk. Watch AEMET's final midday update and early observations for shifts as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$2,573End Date
Apr 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of latest AEMET forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble means projecting Madrid's highest temperature on April 16 at 24-26°C, with 25°C leading at 37% implied probability ahead of 26°C (29%) and 24°C (21%). This positioning stems from a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia ushering southerly winds and clear skies after recent cooler days, including a 15°C maximum on April 13; however, model spread arises from varying predictions on afternoon boundary-layer mixing and potential thin high clouds capping peaks. Historical April averages hover around 19°C, underscoring the mild above-normal outlook amid low precipitation risk. Watch AEMET's final midday update and early observations for shifts as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,573End Date
Apr 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering of latest AEMET forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble means projecting Madrid's highest temperature on April 16 at 24-26°C, with 25°C leading at 37% implied probability ahead of 26°C (29%) and 24°C (21%). This positioning stems from a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia ushering southerly winds and clear skies after recent cooler days, including a 15°C maximum on April 13; however, model spread arises from varying predictions on afternoon boundary-layer mixing and potential thin high clouds capping peaks. Historical April averages hover around 19°C, underscoring the mild above-normal outlook amid low precipitation risk. Watch AEMET's final midday update and early observations for shifts as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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