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Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 16?

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Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 16?

Apr 14

Apr 15

Apr 16

Apr 14

Apr 15

Apr 16

66-67°F 32%

64-65°F 25%

68-69°F 21%

62-63°F 9%

Polymarket
NEW

66-67°F 32%

64-65°F 25%

68-69°F 21%

62-63°F 9%

Polymarket
NEW

59°F or below

$210 Vol.

2%

60-61°F

$61 Vol.

5%

62-63°F

$59 Vol.

9%

64-65°F

$219 Vol.

25%

66-67°F

$146 Vol.

32%

68-69°F

$88 Vol.

28%

70-71°F

$52 Vol.

6%

72-73°F

$124 Vol.

3%

74-75°F

$124 Vol.

2%

76-77°F

$138 Vol.

2%

78°F or higher

$181 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and model ensembles from GFS and ECMWF point to San Francisco highs of 65-70°F on April 16, mirroring the tight clustering of trader probabilities across 66-75°F bins, with 66-67°F leading at 31.5%. Recent scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through April 13-14 have maintained cool marine-influenced air masses, suppressing temps below seasonal averages near 64°F, but a transitioning upper-level ridge and weakening low-pressure trough signal potential diurnal clearing of persistent coastal stratus. Key differentiators include burn-off timing of the marine layer—earlier clearing could push toward 70-75°F via enhanced solar heating, while stubborn fog favors 66°F or below—amid light onshore winds of 10-15 mph. New 12z model runs expected midday April 15 may refine this uncertainty.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,401
End Date
Apr 16, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 7:02 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and model ensembles from GFS and ECMWF point to San Francisco highs of 65-70°F on April 16, mirroring the tight clustering of trader probabilities across 66-75°F bins, with 66-67°F leading at 31.5%. Recent scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through April 13-14 have maintained cool marine-influenced air masses, suppressing temps below seasonal averages near 64°F, but a transitioning upper-level ridge and weakening low-pressure trough signal potential diurnal clearing of persistent coastal stratus. Key differentiators include burn-off timing of the marine layer—earlier clearing could push toward 70-75°F via enhanced solar heating, while stubborn fog favors 66°F or below—amid light onshore winds of 10-15 mph. New 12z model runs expected midday April 15 may refine this uncertainty.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,401
End Date
Apr 16, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 7:02 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 16?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "66-67°F" at 32%, followed by "68-69°F" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 32¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 16?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 16?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 16?" is "66-67°F" at 32%, meaning the market assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "68-69°F" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 16?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.