Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Lagos' highest temperature on April 16, with GFS and ECMWF projections centering around 33°C amid variable cloud cover, explaining the near-even odds for 32–35°C outcomes. Recent observations at Murtala Muhammed International Airport recorded peaks of 35°C on April 10 under clear skies, but mid-week convective showers and high humidity moderated highs to 30–33°C, per NiMet bulletins. Differentiating factors include morning insolation levels, sea breeze intrusion from the Gulf of Guinea capping peaks at 31–32°C, versus urban heat island effects and partial clearing pushing toward 34–35°C—consistent with April's climatological average of 32°C in this tropical monsoon regime. Hourly METAR updates from DNMM will sharpen resolution as diurnal heating unfolds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lagos on April 16?
Highest temperature in Lagos on April 16?
34°C 28%
32°C 27%
35°C 25%
33°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Apr 16, 2026
28°C or below
1%
29°C
3%
30°C
8%
31°C
12%
32°C
27%
33°C
20%
34°C
28%
35°C
25%
36°C
12%
37°C
8%
38°C or higher
2%
34°C 28%
32°C 27%
35°C 25%
33°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Apr 16, 2026
28°C or below
$284 Vol.
1%
29°C
$197 Vol.
3%
30°C
$23 Vol.
8%
31°C
$6 Vol.
12%
32°C
$6 Vol.
27%
33°C
$37 Vol.
20%
34°C
$6 Vol.
28%
35°C
$25 Vol.
25%
36°C
$6 Vol.
12%
37°C
$6 Vol.
8%
38°C or higher
$220 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Lagos' highest temperature on April 16, with GFS and ECMWF projections centering around 33°C amid variable cloud cover, explaining the near-even odds for 32–35°C outcomes. Recent observations at Murtala Muhammed International Airport recorded peaks of 35°C on April 10 under clear skies, but mid-week convective showers and high humidity moderated highs to 30–33°C, per NiMet bulletins. Differentiating factors include morning insolation levels, sea breeze intrusion from the Gulf of Guinea capping peaks at 31–32°C, versus urban heat island effects and partial clearing pushing toward 34–35°C—consistent with April's climatological average of 32°C in this tropical monsoon regime. Hourly METAR updates from DNMM will sharpen resolution as diurnal heating unfolds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 6:23 PM ET
Volume
$817End Date
Apr 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Lagos' highest temperature on April 16, with GFS and ECMWF projections centering around 33°C amid variable cloud cover, explaining the near-even odds for 32–35°C outcomes. Recent observations at Murtala Muhammed International Airport recorded peaks of 35°C on April 10 under clear skies, but mid-week convective showers and high humidity moderated highs to 30–33°C, per NiMet bulletins. Differentiating factors include morning insolation levels, sea breeze intrusion from the Gulf of Guinea capping peaks at 31–32°C, versus urban heat island effects and partial clearing pushing toward 34–35°C—consistent with April's climatological average of 32°C in this tropical monsoon regime. Hourly METAR updates from DNMM will sharpen resolution as diurnal heating unfolds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$817End Date
Apr 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Lagos' highest temperature on April 16, with GFS and ECMWF projections centering around 33°C amid variable cloud cover, explaining the near-even odds for 32–35°C outcomes. Recent observations at Murtala Muhammed International Airport recorded peaks of 35°C on April 10 under clear skies, but mid-week convective showers and high humidity moderated highs to 30–33°C, per NiMet bulletins. Differentiating factors include morning insolation levels, sea breeze intrusion from the Gulf of Guinea capping peaks at 31–32°C, versus urban heat island effects and partial clearing pushing toward 34–35°C—consistent with April's climatological average of 32°C in this tropical monsoon regime. Hourly METAR updates from DNMM will sharpen resolution as diurnal heating unfolds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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