Market icon

Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 14?

Market icon

Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 14?

Apr 11

Apr 12

Apr 13

Apr 14

Apr 11

Apr 12

Apr 13

Apr 14

64°F or higher 50%

62-63°F 17%

56-57°F 16%

58-59°F 16%

Polymarket
NEW

64°F or higher 50%

62-63°F 17%

56-57°F 16%

58-59°F 16%

Polymarket
NEW

45°F or below

$215 Vol.

<1%

46-47°F

$157 Vol.

1%

48-49°F

$155 Vol.

1%

50-51°F

$159 Vol.

1%

52-53°F

$6 Vol.

3%

54-55°F

$13 Vol.

4%

56-57°F

$33 Vol.

10%

58-59°F

$20 Vol.

16%

60-61°F

$0 Vol.

14%

62-63°F

$103 Vol.

22%

64°F or higher

$14 Vol.

27%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket splits nearly evenly between an unusually cool high of 45°F or below (50%) and a mild 64°F or higher (50%), reflecting high uncertainty in the persistence of San Francisco's coastal marine layer amid variable spring onshore flow. NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles currently cluster downtown highs around 59–62°F for April 14, but model divergences on stratus burn-off timing and low-level cool air advection create the bimodal sentiment: prolonged fog under a strong inversion could cap peaks near record-low April highs (historically as low as 49°F), while quicker clearing and subtle ridge amplification offshore would push into climatological norms near 63°F. Following recent showers through April 12, watch NWS Bay Area updates for 00Z/12Z runs resolving inversion depth.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$876
End Date
Apr 14, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 12, 2026, 12:14 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket splits nearly evenly between an unusually cool high of 45°F or below (50%) and a mild 64°F or higher (50%), reflecting high uncertainty in the persistence of San Francisco's coastal marine layer amid variable spring onshore flow. NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles currently cluster downtown highs around 59–62°F for April 14, but model divergences on stratus burn-off timing and low-level cool air advection create the bimodal sentiment: prolonged fog under a strong inversion could cap peaks near record-low April highs (historically as low as 49°F), while quicker clearing and subtle ridge amplification offshore would push into climatological norms near 63°F. Following recent showers through April 12, watch NWS Bay Area updates for 00Z/12Z runs resolving inversion depth.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$876
End Date
Apr 14, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 12, 2026, 12:14 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 14?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "64°F or higher" at 27%, followed by "62-63°F" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 14?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 12, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 14?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 14?" is "64°F or higher" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "62-63°F" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 14?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.