Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 43.5% probability for London's highest temperature reaching 15°C on April 12, closely aligned with the latest Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts projecting peaks of 14-15°C under sunny intervals and moderate southwesterly breezes. This positioning follows a sharp cooldown after the record 26.6°C heat in southwest London on April 8—the warmest early April day in 80 years—driven by a low-pressure system displacing high pressure and advecting cooler Atlantic air masses, with scattered early showers limiting solar heating. GFS and ECMWF model ensembles converge on these mild conditions near seasonal norms of 12-15°C, though persistent cloud versus clearing skies introduces uncertainty that could tip outcomes toward 14°C or 16°C. Met Office updates expected later today may further clarify peak afternoon temperatures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on April 12?
Highest temperature in London on April 12?
15°C 45%
14°C 27%
16°C 19.3%
13°C 5.6%
$123,396 Vol.
$123,396 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
6%
14°C
27%
15°C
45%
16°C
19%
17°C
4%
18°C or higher
<1%
15°C 45%
14°C 27%
16°C 19.3%
13°C 5.6%
$123,396 Vol.
$123,396 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
8°C or below
$12,186 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$11,598 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$9,679 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$17,723 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$13,249 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$14,437 Vol.
6%
14°C
$7,918 Vol.
27%
15°C
$9,036 Vol.
45%
16°C
$9,735 Vol.
19%
17°C
$8,601 Vol.
4%
18°C or higher
$9,860 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 43.5% probability for London's highest temperature reaching 15°C on April 12, closely aligned with the latest Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts projecting peaks of 14-15°C under sunny intervals and moderate southwesterly breezes. This positioning follows a sharp cooldown after the record 26.6°C heat in southwest London on April 8—the warmest early April day in 80 years—driven by a low-pressure system displacing high pressure and advecting cooler Atlantic air masses, with scattered early showers limiting solar heating. GFS and ECMWF model ensembles converge on these mild conditions near seasonal norms of 12-15°C, though persistent cloud versus clearing skies introduces uncertainty that could tip outcomes toward 14°C or 16°C. Met Office updates expected later today may further clarify peak afternoon temperatures.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$123,396End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 43.5% probability for London's highest temperature reaching 15°C on April 12, closely aligned with the latest Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts projecting peaks of 14-15°C under sunny intervals and moderate southwesterly breezes. This positioning follows a sharp cooldown after the record 26.6°C heat in southwest London on April 8—the warmest early April day in 80 years—driven by a low-pressure system displacing high pressure and advecting cooler Atlantic air masses, with scattered early showers limiting solar heating. GFS and ECMWF model ensembles converge on these mild conditions near seasonal norms of 12-15°C, though persistent cloud versus clearing skies introduces uncertainty that could tip outcomes toward 14°C or 16°C. Met Office updates expected later today may further clarify peak afternoon temperatures.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$123,396End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 43.5% probability for London's highest temperature reaching 15°C on April 12, closely aligned with the latest Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts projecting peaks of 14-15°C under sunny intervals and moderate southwesterly breezes. This positioning follows a sharp cooldown after the record 26.6°C heat in southwest London on April 8—the warmest early April day in 80 years—driven by a low-pressure system displacing high pressure and advecting cooler Atlantic air masses, with scattered early showers limiting solar heating. GFS and ECMWF model ensembles converge on these mild conditions near seasonal norms of 12-15°C, though persistent cloud versus clearing skies introduces uncertainty that could tip outcomes toward 14°C or 16°C. Met Office updates expected later today may further clarify peak afternoon temperatures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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