Trader sentiment is tightly split for major space weather events—defined by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center as G3+ geomagnetic storms, S3+ solar radiation storms, or R3+ radio blackouts from April 12–18—with 8+ at 45.5% edging <3 at 44.5%, reflecting deep uncertainty in solar active region evolution during solar cycle 25's decline. The first X-class flare of 2026 erupted April 11, potentially from an emerging sunspot complex, raising odds for multiple R3+ blackouts if it persists and rotates Earthward, while lingering coronal mass ejections could trigger G3 storms. However, SWPC's recent 27-day outlook signals low geomagnetic activity with slim flare probabilities, tilting toward few events absent prolific flaring or well-timed CME impacts. Daily SWPC updates through next week's close will clarify model consensus on these volatile drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many major Space Weather events this week? (April 12 - April 18)
How many major Space Weather events this week? (April 12 - April 18)
<3 44%
5 42%
6 41%
8+ 41%
NEW
NEW
Apr 18, 2026
<3
44%
3
40%
4
40%
5
42%
6
41%
7
40%
8+
41%
<3 44%
5 42%
6 41%
8+ 41%
NEW
NEW
Apr 18, 2026
<3
$2 Vol.
44%
3
$266 Vol.
40%
4
$3,009 Vol.
40%
5
$2 Vol.
42%
6
$2 Vol.
41%
7
$2 Vol.
40%
8+
$2 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between April 12, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 18, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Trader sentiment is tightly split for major space weather events—defined by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center as G3+ geomagnetic storms, S3+ solar radiation storms, or R3+ radio blackouts from April 12–18—with 8+ at 45.5% edging <3 at 44.5%, reflecting deep uncertainty in solar active region evolution during solar cycle 25's decline. The first X-class flare of 2026 erupted April 11, potentially from an emerging sunspot complex, raising odds for multiple R3+ blackouts if it persists and rotates Earthward, while lingering coronal mass ejections could trigger G3 storms. However, SWPC's recent 27-day outlook signals low geomagnetic activity with slim flare probabilities, tilting toward few events absent prolific flaring or well-timed CME impacts. Daily SWPC updates through next week's close will clarify model consensus on these volatile drivers.
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between April 12, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 18, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Apr 10, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Volume
$3,287End Date
Apr 18, 2026Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between April 12, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 18, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Trader sentiment is tightly split for major space weather events—defined by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center as G3+ geomagnetic storms, S3+ solar radiation storms, or R3+ radio blackouts from April 12–18—with 8+ at 45.5% edging <3 at 44.5%, reflecting deep uncertainty in solar active region evolution during solar cycle 25's decline. The first X-class flare of 2026 erupted April 11, potentially from an emerging sunspot complex, raising odds for multiple R3+ blackouts if it persists and rotates Earthward, while lingering coronal mass ejections could trigger G3 storms. However, SWPC's recent 27-day outlook signals low geomagnetic activity with slim flare probabilities, tilting toward few events absent prolific flaring or well-timed CME impacts. Daily SWPC updates through next week's close will clarify model consensus on these volatile drivers.
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between April 12, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 18, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$3,287End Date
Apr 18, 2026Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment is tightly split for major space weather events—defined by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center as G3+ geomagnetic storms, S3+ solar radiation storms, or R3+ radio blackouts from April 12–18—with 8+ at 45.5% edging <3 at 44.5%, reflecting deep uncertainty in solar active region evolution during solar cycle 25's decline. The first X-class flare of 2026 erupted April 11, potentially from an emerging sunspot complex, raising odds for multiple R3+ blackouts if it persists and rotates Earthward, while lingering coronal mass ejections could trigger G3 storms. However, SWPC's recent 27-day outlook signals low geomagnetic activity with slim flare probabilities, tilting toward few events absent prolific flaring or well-timed CME impacts. Daily SWPC updates through next week's close will clarify model consensus on these volatile drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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