Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature on April 13, with models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering around 30–33°C amid partly cloudy skies and moderating sea breezes from the Gulf of Guinea. NiMet's recent bulletins note persistent humidity and occasional dust haze early April, tempering extremes, while historical April data from NOAA shows average highs of 32°C (90°F), rarely exceeding 34°C or dipping below 29°C due to the urban heat island and coastal influences. Differentiation among close outcomes (29–36°C at 19–21.5%) stems from model disagreements on cloud persistence—thicker cover favors 29–31°C, clearer intervals 33–35°C—against low odds for extremes given climatological baselines. Watch NiMet's April 12 update for refined guidance as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lagos on April 13?
Highest temperature in Lagos on April 13?
30°C 19%
33°C 19%
32°C 18%
34°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Apr 13, 2026
28°C or below
8%
29°C
11%
30°C
19%
31°C
15%
32°C
18%
33°C
19%
34°C
17%
35°C
12%
36°C
12%
37°C
8%
38°C or higher
9%
30°C 19%
33°C 19%
32°C 18%
34°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Apr 13, 2026
28°C or below
$67 Vol.
8%
29°C
$17 Vol.
11%
30°C
$0 Vol.
19%
31°C
$0 Vol.
15%
32°C
$32 Vol.
18%
33°C
$0 Vol.
19%
34°C
$0 Vol.
17%
35°C
$0 Vol.
12%
36°C
$0 Vol.
12%
37°C
$17 Vol.
8%
38°C or higher
$93 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature on April 13, with models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering around 30–33°C amid partly cloudy skies and moderating sea breezes from the Gulf of Guinea. NiMet's recent bulletins note persistent humidity and occasional dust haze early April, tempering extremes, while historical April data from NOAA shows average highs of 32°C (90°F), rarely exceeding 34°C or dipping below 29°C due to the urban heat island and coastal influences. Differentiation among close outcomes (29–36°C at 19–21.5%) stems from model disagreements on cloud persistence—thicker cover favors 29–31°C, clearer intervals 33–35°C—against low odds for extremes given climatological baselines. Watch NiMet's April 12 update for refined guidance as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 11, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$226End Date
Apr 13, 2026Market Opened
Apr 11, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature on April 13, with models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering around 30–33°C amid partly cloudy skies and moderating sea breezes from the Gulf of Guinea. NiMet's recent bulletins note persistent humidity and occasional dust haze early April, tempering extremes, while historical April data from NOAA shows average highs of 32°C (90°F), rarely exceeding 34°C or dipping below 29°C due to the urban heat island and coastal influences. Differentiation among close outcomes (29–36°C at 19–21.5%) stems from model disagreements on cloud persistence—thicker cover favors 29–31°C, clearer intervals 33–35°C—against low odds for extremes given climatological baselines. Watch NiMet's April 12 update for refined guidance as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$226End Date
Apr 13, 2026Market Opened
Apr 11, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature on April 13, with models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering around 30–33°C amid partly cloudy skies and moderating sea breezes from the Gulf of Guinea. NiMet's recent bulletins note persistent humidity and occasional dust haze early April, tempering extremes, while historical April data from NOAA shows average highs of 32°C (90°F), rarely exceeding 34°C or dipping below 29°C due to the urban heat island and coastal influences. Differentiation among close outcomes (29–36°C at 19–21.5%) stems from model disagreements on cloud persistence—thicker cover favors 29–31°C, clearer intervals 33–35°C—against low odds for extremes given climatological baselines. Watch NiMet's April 12 update for refined guidance as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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