Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects genuine uncertainty in short-term temperature forecasts for Taipei on April 14, with 28°C through 33°C outcomes each implying 45% probabilities amid a persistent warm southwesterly air mass fueling summer-like conditions. Recent Central Weather Administration observations show April 11 highs of 31°C to 32°C across northern Taiwan under mostly sunny skies, sustained by above-seasonal sea surface temperatures and a stable high-pressure ridge. Differentiating factors include rising humidity potentially capping peaks via increased cloud cover or evaporative cooling, versus urban heat amplification in the Taipei Basin pushing toward 32-33°C. A frontal system approaching April 15 adds minor downside risk for cooler outcomes, with CWA's next advisory expected to refine model consensus from current ensembles varying by 2-3°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Taipei on April 14?
Highest temperature in Taipei on April 14?
29°C 27%
30°C 27%
31°C 22%
32°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Apr 14, 2026
24°C or below
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
5%
27°C
5%
28°C
11%
29°C
21%
30°C
22%
31°C
22%
32°C
16%
33°C
12%
34°C or higher
7%
29°C 27%
30°C 27%
31°C 22%
32°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Apr 14, 2026
24°C or below
$185 Vol.
1%
25°C
$145 Vol.
2%
26°C
$181 Vol.
5%
27°C
$81 Vol.
5%
28°C
$43 Vol.
11%
29°C
$30 Vol.
21%
30°C
$47 Vol.
22%
31°C
$30 Vol.
22%
32°C
$185 Vol.
16%
33°C
$61 Vol.
12%
34°C or higher
$62 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects genuine uncertainty in short-term temperature forecasts for Taipei on April 14, with 28°C through 33°C outcomes each implying 45% probabilities amid a persistent warm southwesterly air mass fueling summer-like conditions. Recent Central Weather Administration observations show April 11 highs of 31°C to 32°C across northern Taiwan under mostly sunny skies, sustained by above-seasonal sea surface temperatures and a stable high-pressure ridge. Differentiating factors include rising humidity potentially capping peaks via increased cloud cover or evaporative cooling, versus urban heat amplification in the Taipei Basin pushing toward 32-33°C. A frontal system approaching April 15 adds minor downside risk for cooler outcomes, with CWA's next advisory expected to refine model consensus from current ensembles varying by 2-3°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 12, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
Volume
$1,051End Date
Apr 14, 2026Market Opened
Apr 12, 2026, 12:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects genuine uncertainty in short-term temperature forecasts for Taipei on April 14, with 28°C through 33°C outcomes each implying 45% probabilities amid a persistent warm southwesterly air mass fueling summer-like conditions. Recent Central Weather Administration observations show April 11 highs of 31°C to 32°C across northern Taiwan under mostly sunny skies, sustained by above-seasonal sea surface temperatures and a stable high-pressure ridge. Differentiating factors include rising humidity potentially capping peaks via increased cloud cover or evaporative cooling, versus urban heat amplification in the Taipei Basin pushing toward 32-33°C. A frontal system approaching April 15 adds minor downside risk for cooler outcomes, with CWA's next advisory expected to refine model consensus from current ensembles varying by 2-3°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,051End Date
Apr 14, 2026Market Opened
Apr 12, 2026, 12:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects genuine uncertainty in short-term temperature forecasts for Taipei on April 14, with 28°C through 33°C outcomes each implying 45% probabilities amid a persistent warm southwesterly air mass fueling summer-like conditions. Recent Central Weather Administration observations show April 11 highs of 31°C to 32°C across northern Taiwan under mostly sunny skies, sustained by above-seasonal sea surface temperatures and a stable high-pressure ridge. Differentiating factors include rising humidity potentially capping peaks via increased cloud cover or evaporative cooling, versus urban heat amplification in the Taipei Basin pushing toward 32-33°C. A frontal system approaching April 15 adds minor downside risk for cooler outcomes, with CWA's next advisory expected to refine model consensus from current ensembles varying by 2-3°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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