Latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecasts project maximum temperatures of 25-28°C in Mexico City for April 12-13, with extended outlooks indicating similar warmth on April 14, anchoring the 96.7% market-implied probability for 22°C or higher. This positioning reflects persistent high-pressure ridging over central Mexico during the dry season, enabling strong solar heating at the city's 2,240-meter elevation despite recent moisture surges causing isolated chubascos (5-25 mm showers). Historical April data shows average highs near 26°C, with sub-22°C days rarer than 5% under analogous conditions. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen mid-level trough intensification suppressing daytime peaks via cloud cover, though ensemble models like GFS show minimal support; monitor SMN's daily regional briefings and Benito Juárez airport observations for updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on April 14?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 14?
22°C or higher 96.5%
21°C 2.1%
20°C 2.0%
19°C <1%
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
97%
22°C or higher 96.5%
21°C 2.1%
20°C 2.0%
19°C <1%
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
97%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) forecasts project maximum temperatures of 25-28°C in Mexico City for April 12-13, with extended outlooks indicating similar warmth on April 14, anchoring the 96.7% market-implied probability for 22°C or higher. This positioning reflects persistent high-pressure ridging over central Mexico during the dry season, enabling strong solar heating at the city's 2,240-meter elevation despite recent moisture surges causing isolated chubascos (5-25 mm showers). Historical April data shows average highs near 26°C, with sub-22°C days rarer than 5% under analogous conditions. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen mid-level trough intensification suppressing daytime peaks via cloud cover, though ensemble models like GFS show minimal support; monitor SMN's daily regional briefings and Benito Juárez airport observations for updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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