Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models for Chengdu's April 16 high temperature, with ensemble forecasts from CMA, ECMWF, and GFS clustering around 24–26°C and implied probabilities closely split among 24°C (24%), 25°C (27.5%), and 26°C or higher (24%). Recent cloudy conditions and light rain over the past 48 hours suppressed April 15's high to about 23°C per China Meteorological Administration observations, amid a lingering frontal boundary. Key differentiators include potential for increased subsidence under a building mid-level ridge promoting clearer skies and southerly flow adding warmth, versus persistent low-level moisture fostering clouds. Watch CMA's evening update for refined guidance; resolution hinges on official station readings at Chengdu Shuangliu or Tianfu airports.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on April 16?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 16?
25°C 28%
24°C 24%
26°C or higher 24%
23°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 16, 2026
16°C or below
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
5%
22°C
13%
23°C
15%
24°C
24%
25°C
28%
26°C or higher
24%
25°C 28%
24°C 24%
26°C or higher 24%
23°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 16, 2026
16°C or below
$285 Vol.
1%
17°C
$186 Vol.
1%
18°C
$578 Vol.
1%
19°C
$640 Vol.
1%
20°C
$733 Vol.
2%
21°C
$486 Vol.
5%
22°C
$83 Vol.
13%
23°C
$50 Vol.
15%
24°C
$41 Vol.
24%
25°C
$45 Vol.
28%
26°C or higher
$5 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models for Chengdu's April 16 high temperature, with ensemble forecasts from CMA, ECMWF, and GFS clustering around 24–26°C and implied probabilities closely split among 24°C (24%), 25°C (27.5%), and 26°C or higher (24%). Recent cloudy conditions and light rain over the past 48 hours suppressed April 15's high to about 23°C per China Meteorological Administration observations, amid a lingering frontal boundary. Key differentiators include potential for increased subsidence under a building mid-level ridge promoting clearer skies and southerly flow adding warmth, versus persistent low-level moisture fostering clouds. Watch CMA's evening update for refined guidance; resolution hinges on official station readings at Chengdu Shuangliu or Tianfu airports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 6:09 PM ET
Volume
$2,746End Date
Apr 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models for Chengdu's April 16 high temperature, with ensemble forecasts from CMA, ECMWF, and GFS clustering around 24–26°C and implied probabilities closely split among 24°C (24%), 25°C (27.5%), and 26°C or higher (24%). Recent cloudy conditions and light rain over the past 48 hours suppressed April 15's high to about 23°C per China Meteorological Administration observations, amid a lingering frontal boundary. Key differentiators include potential for increased subsidence under a building mid-level ridge promoting clearer skies and southerly flow adding warmth, versus persistent low-level moisture fostering clouds. Watch CMA's evening update for refined guidance; resolution hinges on official station readings at Chengdu Shuangliu or Tianfu airports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,746End Date
Apr 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models for Chengdu's April 16 high temperature, with ensemble forecasts from CMA, ECMWF, and GFS clustering around 24–26°C and implied probabilities closely split among 24°C (24%), 25°C (27.5%), and 26°C or higher (24%). Recent cloudy conditions and light rain over the past 48 hours suppressed April 15's high to about 23°C per China Meteorological Administration observations, amid a lingering frontal boundary. Key differentiators include potential for increased subsidence under a building mid-level ridge promoting clearer skies and southerly flow adding warmth, versus persistent low-level moisture fostering clouds. Watch CMA's evening update for refined guidance; resolution hinges on official station readings at Chengdu Shuangliu or Tianfu airports.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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