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Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?

Apr 3

Apr 4

Apr 5

Apr 6

Apr 3

Apr 4

Apr 5

Apr 6

24°C 36%

23°C 29%

22°C 17%

25°C 16%

Polymarket

$17,643 Vol.

24°C 36%

23°C 29%

22°C 17%

25°C 16%

Polymarket

$17,643 Vol.

17°C or below

$2,150 Vol.

<1%

18°C

$1,357 Vol.

<1%

19°C

$1,214 Vol.

<1%

20°C

$1,229 Vol.

1%

21°C

$1,475 Vol.

5%

22°C

$1,763 Vol.

17%

23°C

$1,913 Vol.

29%

24°C

$1,875 Vol.

36%

25°C

$1,835 Vol.

16%

26°C

$1,443 Vol.

3%

27°C or higher

$1,389 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Madrid's highest temperature on April 4 clustering tightly at 22-24°C at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, fueling trader consensus with 23°C (28%) and 24°C (32.5%) as near-coequal leaders amid mild high-pressure dominance and clear skies. Recent observations show diurnal heating strengthening, with maxima rising from 19°C on April 2 to a forecasted 22°C today under light northerly winds at 15 km/h, per AEMET data—above the 18°C April climatological average. Differentiating factors include boundary-layer mixing variability and potential for minor high clouds limiting peak insolation, creating genuine uncertainty resolvable by afternoon observations. Watch final 12z model updates today for shifts before official AEMET measurement resolves the market.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$17,643
End Date
Apr 4, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 4:22 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Madrid's highest temperature on April 4 clustering tightly at 22-24°C at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, fueling trader consensus with 23°C (28%) and 24°C (32.5%) as near-coequal leaders amid mild high-pressure dominance and clear skies. Recent observations show diurnal heating strengthening, with maxima rising from 19°C on April 2 to a forecasted 22°C today under light northerly winds at 15 km/h, per AEMET data—above the 18°C April climatological average. Differentiating factors include boundary-layer mixing variability and potential for minor high clouds limiting peak insolation, creating genuine uncertainty resolvable by afternoon observations. Watch final 12z model updates today for shifts before official AEMET measurement resolves the market.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$17,643
End Date
Apr 4, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 4:22 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "24°C" at 36%, followed by "23°C" at 29%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?" has generated $17.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?" is "24°C" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "23°C" at 29%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.