PAGASA’s latest forecast under the southwest monsoon shows Metro Manila with partly cloudy to cloudy skies, scattered rains, and a daytime high near 33°C on June 7, aligning with the market’s 100% implied probability for that exact outcome. This reflects the agency’s official temperature guidance for the period, consistent with June climatology of 30–34°C highs amid humid conditions and light to moderate southwesterly winds. Traders appear to view the forecast range and monsoon steering as sufficiently stable to lock in 33°C as the expected maximum recorded at official stations. Deviations could occur if convective activity peaks later than modeled or if localized urban heat effects push observations higher, though current model consensus and historical analogs support limited upside risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on June 7?
Highest temperature in Manila on June 7?
33°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$34,761 Vol.
$34,761 Vol.
Jun 7, 2026
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
Yes
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
33°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$34,761 Vol.
$34,761 Vol.
Jun 7, 2026
28°C or below
$503 Vol.
No
29°C
$1,024 Vol.
No
30°C
$4,199 Vol.
No
31°C
$2,261 Vol.
No
32°C
$2,668 Vol.
No
33°C
$6,064 Vol.
Yes
34°C
$3,512 Vol.
No
35°C
$6,695 Vol.
No
36°C
$6,924 Vol.
No
37°C
$678 Vol.
No
38°C or higher
$233 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.PAGASA’s latest forecast under the southwest monsoon shows Metro Manila with partly cloudy to cloudy skies, scattered rains, and a daytime high near 33°C on June 7, aligning with the market’s 100% implied probability for that exact outcome. This reflects the agency’s official temperature guidance for the period, consistent with June climatology of 30–34°C highs amid humid conditions and light to moderate southwesterly winds. Traders appear to view the forecast range and monsoon steering as sufficiently stable to lock in 33°C as the expected maximum recorded at official stations. Deviations could occur if convective activity peaks later than modeled or if localized urban heat effects push observations higher, though current model consensus and historical analogs support limited upside risk.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 6, 2026, 12:34 AM ET
Volume
$34,761End Date
Jun 7, 2026Market Opened
Jun 6, 2026, 12:34 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.PAGASA’s latest forecast under the southwest monsoon shows Metro Manila with partly cloudy to cloudy skies, scattered rains, and a daytime high near 33°C on June 7, aligning with the market’s 100% implied probability for that exact outcome. This reflects the agency’s official temperature guidance for the period, consistent with June climatology of 30–34°C highs amid humid conditions and light to moderate southwesterly winds. Traders appear to view the forecast range and monsoon steering as sufficiently stable to lock in 33°C as the expected maximum recorded at official stations. Deviations could occur if convective activity peaks later than modeled or if localized urban heat effects push observations higher, though current model consensus and historical analogs support limited upside risk.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$34,761End Date
Jun 7, 2026Market Opened
Jun 6, 2026, 12:34 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
PAGASA’s latest forecast under the southwest monsoon shows Metro Manila with partly cloudy to cloudy skies, scattered rains, and a daytime high near 33°C on June 7, aligning with the market’s 100% implied probability for that exact outcome. This reflects the agency’s official temperature guidance for the period, consistent with June climatology of 30–34°C highs amid humid conditions and light to moderate southwesterly winds. Traders appear to view the forecast range and monsoon steering as sufficiently stable to lock in 33°C as the expected maximum recorded at official stations. Deviations could occur if convective activity peaks later than modeled or if localized urban heat effects push observations higher, though current model consensus and historical analogs support limited upside risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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