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Highest temperature in NYC on July 10?

icon for Highest temperature in NYC on July 10?

Highest temperature in NYC on July 10?

Jul 9

Jul 10

Jul 9

Jul 10

88-89°F 35%

90-91°F 30%

86-87°F 17%

92-93°F 11%

Polymarket
NEW

88-89°F 35%

90-91°F 30%

86-87°F 17%

92-93°F 11%

Polymarket
NEW

79°F or below

$25 Vol.

<1%

80-81°F

$253 Vol.

1%

82-83°F

$129 Vol.

2%

84-85°F

$376 Vol.

5%

86-87°F

$764 Vol.

17%

88-89°F

$698 Vol.

35%

90-91°F

$259 Vol.

30%

92-93°F

$273 Vol.

11%

94-95°F

$665 Vol.

2%

96-97°F

$212 Vol.

1%

98°F or higher

$311 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 88–91°F for NYC’s July 10 high reflects National Weather Service and private model guidance pointing to a warm, humid summer day with afternoon temperatures peaking near or slightly above the seasonal average of 85°F. Recent ensemble runs show limited spread, with steering flow and boundary-layer moisture supporting highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, while variable cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, and any late-day convection introduce the main uncertainty between the tightly bunched 88–89°F and 90–91°F bins. Above-normal July warmth across the Northeast, driven by persistent ridging, underpins the modest probability mass above 92°F, yet the narrow distribution of outcomes highlights how small shifts in insolation or urban heat-island effects can decide the precise daily maximum.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Jul '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,965
End Date
Jul 10, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 9:02 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 88–91°F for NYC’s July 10 high reflects National Weather Service and private model guidance pointing to a warm, humid summer day with afternoon temperatures peaking near or slightly above the seasonal average of 85°F. Recent ensemble runs show limited spread, with steering flow and boundary-layer moisture supporting highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, while variable cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, and any late-day convection introduce the main uncertainty between the tightly bunched 88–89°F and 90–91°F bins. Above-normal July warmth across the Northeast, driven by persistent ridging, underpins the modest probability mass above 92°F, yet the narrow distribution of outcomes highlights how small shifts in insolation or urban heat-island effects can decide the precise daily maximum.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Jul '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,965
End Date
Jul 10, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 9:02 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in NYC on July 10?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "88-89°F" at 34%, followed by "90-91°F" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in NYC on July 10?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 8, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in NYC on July 10?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in NYC on July 10?" is "88-89°F" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "90-91°F" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in NYC on July 10?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.