PAGASA's latest Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run projects a maximum temperature of 36°C at Port Area, Metro Manila, on May 7, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers driven by easterlies—a pattern capping peak heating during the ongoing dry season. This aligns with current observations, including 35.8°C at Science Garden, Quezon City, and yesterday's 36.3°C at nearby Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA), fostering trader consensus at a 100% implied probability for 36°C as the market nears resolution based on finalized Wunderground NAIA data. Realistic challenges include late-afternoon clearing skies boosting insolation or urban heat island effects pushing readings to 37°C, though model stability and humidity suppress such risks; expect post-midnight confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on May 7?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 7?
36°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$34,241 Vol.
$34,241 Vol.
May 7, 2026
30°C or below
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
Yes
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C or higher
No
36°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$34,241 Vol.
$34,241 Vol.
May 7, 2026
30°C or below
$356 Vol.
No
31°C
$592 Vol.
No
32°C
$1,459 Vol.
No
33°C
$1,539 Vol.
No
34°C
$11,886 Vol.
No
35°C
$5,762 Vol.
No
36°C
$3,921 Vol.
Yes
37°C
$2,890 Vol.
No
38°C
$2,878 Vol.
No
39°C
$1,829 Vol.
No
40°C or higher
$1,130 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA's latest Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run projects a maximum temperature of 36°C at Port Area, Metro Manila, on May 7, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers driven by easterlies—a pattern capping peak heating during the ongoing dry season. This aligns with current observations, including 35.8°C at Science Garden, Quezon City, and yesterday's 36.3°C at nearby Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA), fostering trader consensus at a 100% implied probability for 36°C as the market nears resolution based on finalized Wunderground NAIA data. Realistic challenges include late-afternoon clearing skies boosting insolation or urban heat island effects pushing readings to 37°C, though model stability and humidity suppress such risks; expect post-midnight confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 5, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$34,241End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA's latest Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run projects a maximum temperature of 36°C at Port Area, Metro Manila, on May 7, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers driven by easterlies—a pattern capping peak heating during the ongoing dry season. This aligns with current observations, including 35.8°C at Science Garden, Quezon City, and yesterday's 36.3°C at nearby Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA), fostering trader consensus at a 100% implied probability for 36°C as the market nears resolution based on finalized Wunderground NAIA data. Realistic challenges include late-afternoon clearing skies boosting insolation or urban heat island effects pushing readings to 37°C, though model stability and humidity suppress such risks; expect post-midnight confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$34,241End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
PAGASA's latest Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run projects a maximum temperature of 36°C at Port Area, Metro Manila, on May 7, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers driven by easterlies—a pattern capping peak heating during the ongoing dry season. This aligns with current observations, including 35.8°C at Science Garden, Quezon City, and yesterday's 36.3°C at nearby Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA), fostering trader consensus at a 100% implied probability for 36°C as the market nears resolution based on finalized Wunderground NAIA data. Realistic challenges include late-afternoon clearing skies boosting insolation or urban heat island effects pushing readings to 37°C, though model stability and humidity suppress such risks; expect post-midnight confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions