Recent forecast models from agencies like the National Meteorological Service of Mexico indicate a daytime high near 26°C for Mexico City on August 19, driven by the city's 2,240-meter elevation, which moderates peak temperatures during the rainy season, combined with partly cloudy conditions and light afternoon convection that limits extreme heating. Historical August averages hover around 23–24°C, but recent observations show occasional spikes above 28°C under clearer skies. Trader consensus, reflected in the 45% implied probability for 26°C, incorporates model spread and potential for 1–2°C variability from steering patterns or precipitation timing, with 27°C and 25°C as close alternatives. Updated model runs and official briefings expected overnight will refine these outcomes ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 19?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 19?
26°C 45%
27°C 23%
25°C 21%
24°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
4%
24°C
7%
25°C
21%
26°C
45%
27°C
23%
28°C
5%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 45%
27°C 23%
25°C 21%
24°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
22°C or below
$128 Vol.
1%
23°C
$97 Vol.
4%
24°C
$158 Vol.
7%
25°C
$472 Vol.
21%
26°C
$217 Vol.
45%
27°C
$53 Vol.
23%
28°C
$178 Vol.
5%
29°C
$156 Vol.
1%
30°C
$128 Vol.
1%
31°C
$39 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$40 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like the National Meteorological Service of Mexico indicate a daytime high near 26°C for Mexico City on August 19, driven by the city's 2,240-meter elevation, which moderates peak temperatures during the rainy season, combined with partly cloudy conditions and light afternoon convection that limits extreme heating. Historical August averages hover around 23–24°C, but recent observations show occasional spikes above 28°C under clearer skies. Trader consensus, reflected in the 45% implied probability for 26°C, incorporates model spread and potential for 1–2°C variability from steering patterns or precipitation timing, with 27°C and 25°C as close alternatives. Updated model runs and official briefings expected overnight will refine these outcomes ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 9:57 PM ET
Volume
$1,668End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like the National Meteorological Service of Mexico indicate a daytime high near 26°C for Mexico City on August 19, driven by the city's 2,240-meter elevation, which moderates peak temperatures during the rainy season, combined with partly cloudy conditions and light afternoon convection that limits extreme heating. Historical August averages hover around 23–24°C, but recent observations show occasional spikes above 28°C under clearer skies. Trader consensus, reflected in the 45% implied probability for 26°C, incorporates model spread and potential for 1–2°C variability from steering patterns or precipitation timing, with 27°C and 25°C as close alternatives. Updated model runs and official briefings expected overnight will refine these outcomes ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,668End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from agencies like the National Meteorological Service of Mexico indicate a daytime high near 26°C for Mexico City on August 19, driven by the city's 2,240-meter elevation, which moderates peak temperatures during the rainy season, combined with partly cloudy conditions and light afternoon convection that limits extreme heating. Historical August averages hover around 23–24°C, but recent observations show occasional spikes above 28°C under clearer skies. Trader consensus, reflected in the 45% implied probability for 26°C, incorporates model spread and potential for 1–2°C variability from steering patterns or precipitation timing, with 27°C and 25°C as close alternatives. Updated model runs and official briefings expected overnight will refine these outcomes ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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